Monthly Archive for August, 2007

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis – 19th August 07

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex. 0 Comments

GBPUSD

Volatility of this pair is drastic. It went up and down bobbling 400 pips and more before closing for the week. The pound might be undergoing a major correction towards the downside as it broke the support lines for the Daily and Weekly charts. More monitoring is needed on the opening for confirmation of the trend, though it looks good on H4 and Daily for a long, I’ll just step aside for the moment.

tech weekly analysis on GBPUSD 19th Aug

GBPJPY

The pair dipped even worse than GBPUSD with ovecor a 1,000 pips in just a day. The main uptrend might be broken, as with GBPUSD, I’ll side step and monitor for further confirmations.

EURUSD

Main uptrend is still intact though EUR dipped against USD pretty much before the closing of the market last week. Weekly chart shows there might be a possibility heading towards the downside with MACD’s showing much room for it to dip further. Step aside to monitor.

EURJPY

Everything is looking shakey at the moment for the long term, including Euro against the Yen. Though it might seem that its good for short term for a long on the opening of the pair if it pushes through 200EMA/SMA on 30M and H1.

Weekly Forex Technical Analysis - 19th August 07

AUDUSD

The Aussie plummeted against the Dollar but tries to come back before the closure. The main uptrend is still intact, and we might see retracement back to the 38.2 & 50.0 fib zones. First, look out for the candle to cross the 30M and H1 200 EMA line.

USDCAD

The bear trend for USD should continue with CAD with the opening markets. We should see the candle tackling the 200EMA zone on H4. Also, the main trend remains downwards. We’ll be watching closely at this one for a short.

GBPCHF

We’ll be sidestepping on GBPCHF. The main trend for this pair remains bullish, but further confirmations is needed from MACD and MA lines. The daily chart suggests it might continue to dip further to 2.398 zone.

Conclusion

It was a hell of a week for trading last week, so did you bag any pips? . We’ll see how it goes for this week. Good luck.

Interview with Clarence Chee, Forex Club Group

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex and interviews. 11 Comments

Hi Clarence! Thank you for accepting the interview with us on No Bullshit Forex Blog,

Q. Tell us more about yourself.

I graduated with an accountancy qualification from the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (London), and have worked in the Civil Service, Statutory Board, Multi-national Corporations, as well Small Medium Enterprise companies. In between I have traded full-time on my own with a bucket-shop (1994-1995) and Phillips Futures (1998). I have also traded part-time with Ong’s First Chicago in 2001 where I witnessed the chaos in the financial market on 911 itself. Besides forex trading, I have also traded stock index futures, as well as commodity futures.

Q. Do you trade full time?

Currently I am trading forex part-time. I plan to go full-time trading sometime next year.

Q. Do you have a trading regimen to share?

There are three aspects in financial trading: method, mindset and money-management. Many amateur traders are more interested in finding the right method for their trading. Actually, of the three aspects in financial trading, the least important is the method. The most important aspect is money-management, for without proper money-management, one can lose his trading capital in no time, even with the right method.

Another thing to note is that in order for one to be a profitable trader, he must have the passion and discipline to analyze charts. Many amateur traders, instead of spending their time in analyzing charts, spend their time instead in looking for trade signals. Personally, I spend more time analyzing the charts than looking for trade signals.

Q. Which forex broker are you using? Why?

Currently I am using InterbankFX as my online broker because of their user-friendly Meta-Trader Platform which allows the use of expert advisers. However, I am in the process of transferring my trading account to a local (Singapore) broker, which most probably is going to be Phillips Futures. Though many local traders do not like to trade with Phillip Futures because of their commission, I find their commission is affordable as it is less than a pip. I will be still using the Meta-Trader Platform for my analysis while executing my orders through Phillips Futures.

Q. I know that you’re running an online forex club. How many members are there and what stuffs do you usually discuss in the group?

Currently we have 154 members in our Forex Club which more than half are residing outside Singapore. I plan to use the group as a platform for me to provide live-time support for all our Dynamite TNT students. (Dynamite TNT Forex System is our very own proprietary system which we are teaching to local members in our monthly workshops, as well as to our global members through our soon-to-be launched ebook.) We encourage our TNT students to post their trades, including losing trades, at our group, so as to encourage others to have confidence in the system, and also for me to monitor the performance of our students, including diagnosing any losing trades. Members who are non-TNT students can also benefit from our Daily TNT Market Analysis and Updates which they can use as a guide for their own trading. On top of that, we also have ebooks at our file section which our members can download them to their computer for their own personal reading.

Q. Can anyone who is interested to learn more or even want to participate in your forex discussions join you? How?

We welcome anyone and everyone to register as members of our group. Yes, all members are free to discuss topics related to forex trading. In fact, I am planning to help those (non-TNT students) who are making loses in their forex trading by asking them to submit to me their trading systems for me to diagnose the problem in their system. I believe that many amateur traders are not able to trade profitably consistently not only because of poor money management but also because of using the wrong combination of technical indicators in their trading system.

Q. I notice you’ve developed a system as well and already have a bunch of followers, can you tell me more about it?

Yes. As mentioned before, the name of the system is “The Dynamite TNT Forex System.” This system was developed because 95% of retail traders lose their money to the institutional traders. I have done a study on why retail or amateur traders lose money, and most of the reasons I found has to do with wrong identification of market trends and turns (i.e. differentiating between reversals and retracements), poor timing for market entry and high risk-reward target profit. Since the system is able to help traders to identify these 4 Ts (trends, turns, timing and target profit) correctly with a high probability of trading success, I decided to name the system Dynamite TNT Forex System, where the TNT refers to the 4Ts.

Q. Neat! Can we get to learn the system anytime soon?

For our local members, they have started learning the system at our monthly series of workshop which we started last May. Currently in August, we are already into our 4th Intake. Each intake undergoes 4 sessions of each 3 hours. Participants can reseat as many times as they want to subject to vacancies. We charge only a few hundred dollars for each participant. As for our global members, we will be launching the ebook on the system using the clickbank platform this August at a very affordable price of USD47.00, which includes live-time support from us.

Q. How do you find No Bullshit Forex?

I am glad to see “No Bullshit HYIP” moving away from HYIPs towards forex trading, hence the change in name to “No Bullshit Forex.” I believe that forex trading, unlike other financial markets, is a better path to financial independence as it is a near perfect market due to its high liquidity and 24-hour availability. The recent sub-prime problem, which causes much chaos in the financial markets, gave forex traders the opportunity to profit from this chaos.

Q. Is there a possibility to invite you over as a guest blogger?

Yes, why not. It is definitely my privilege to be your guest blogger. I hope that your members can also benefit from my trading experience. Even though currently I am not a blogger, I do have plans to have my own blog in the near future so that others may also benefit from my own experience in forex trading, even though they are not our students.

Q. Give us a good and nice forex quote to end this interview.

Here’s something I think all amateur forex traders should take note and bear in mind: “Experienced traders look at risk levels while inexperienced traders look at price levels.” In other words, forex trading is basically about risk management.

Thank you for sparing time with us

Investica – Flight to Quality Boosts Dollar

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex economic news. 0 Comments

I like reading from Investica, a pity they’re updating all these manually without RSS.

The US currency will gain further safe-haven support in the short term as credit stresses persist. It is particularly significant that emerging-market currencies have started to come under pressure as this will increase the potential flow of funds back into the US dollar.

The Euro remained under pressure during Tuesday with the currency failing to hold above 1.36 against the dollar. The Euro was unable to secure any recovery in US trading and weakened to lows below 1.35 in early Europe on Wednesday, the lowest level since late June. Equity markets have deteriorated again in Asian trading on Wednesday and there is likely to be a further pressure to repay dollar-denominated loans.

The general reduction in risk appetite and emerging-market stresses will also tend to support the US dollar with a further reduction in long Euro positions, especially after reports of sub-prime related losses at Spanish-based Santander Bank. The spreading of tensions to emerging markets is particularly important and will help trigger capital repatriation back to the US

US producer prices rose 0.6% in July with an underlying 0.1% monthly increase which should not have an important impact on interest rate expectations. The consumer inflation data will be watched closely on Wednesday and a low core reading would increase speculation over a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Source: Investica

Jude’s Daily Signal 15 Aug 07 – GBPCHF

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex signals, GBPCHF and winning trade. 0 Comments

This might come a little late as I’ve just opened it. Note the high pips spread for this pair.

GBPCHF

Long 2.4245 SL 2.4215 TP 2.4295 or Move SL to profit

FXCM introduces 1-Click Execution

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex brokers. 4 Comments

Got this from my mails and I thought I’d share this.

FXCM (www.fxcm.com) announced today that it has added a new feature to FX Trading Station II. Clients are now able to place a market order with one click. This new feature, one-click execution, will let clients trade more easily on news events and in volatile markets.

The default setting for entering a trade, a two-step process, will not change. However, this is not quite fast enough for many forex traders and that is why one-click execution is now available for FXCM live and demo account clients.

Drew Niv, CEO of FXCM explained “Many of our traders asked us to streamline our process to allow them to place orders in less time. Clients who trade during volatile market conditions when the price can move in hundredths of a second need the ability to move quickly in and out of the market.”

For Live and Demo account clients, FXCM has created an instructional Video to learn more about one-click execution and how to choose this as a trading mode. https://admin.acrobat.com/_a205571165/p17029901/

Honestly, I don’t think 1-Click is pretty much useful to my own benefit. Anyone else uses 1-Click type of execution?

Bloomberg – Euro Falls Versus Dollar on Signs Subprime Losses Spreading

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex economic news. 0 Comments

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) — The euro declined for a second day against the dollar and yen after the European Central Bank provided more cash to banks to ease a credit squeeze prompted by losses on U.S. subprime mortgages.

Europe’s common currency touched a four-month low against the yen after the region’s central bank loaned banks funds for a fourth trading day. UBS AG said profit may be hit this year because of turmoil in financial markets, and a Spanish newspaper reported Banco Santander SA has more than 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) of investments in U.S. high-risk loans.

“Subprime is not a U.S. problem only,” said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets Inc. in Toronto, a unit of Canada’s biggest bank by assets. “It is now being felt by European financial institutions. We haven’t seen the bottom of the issue yet. Investors will be less willing to hold euro assets. The euro is under pressure.”

The euro fell to $1.3572 at 8:55 a.m. in New York from $1.3613 yesterday. Against the yen, it traded at 160.78 compared with 160.97, after earlier touching 159.90, the lowest since April 19.

The euro was also hurt after a government report showed the German economy, Europe’s biggest, grew slower than forecast in the second quarter.

The ECB provided cash to banks “to cover any remaining liquidity needs.” It allotted 7.7 billion euros to banks in a one-day refinancing tender at a marginal lending rate of 4.07 percent.

The ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks injected $290 billion into money markets on Aug. 9 and Aug. 10 amid fears that U.S. subprime mortgage losses will curtail lending and push up short-term interest rates. The ECB added another $65 billion yesterday, which banks pay back today.

UBS, Santander

“It will be difficult for the ECB to raise interest rates if this cash injection drags on,” said David Woo, global head of currency strategy at Barclays Capital in London.

Shares of UBS AG, Europe’s biggest bank, fell to a 2007 low on the Zurich exchange after it said revenue from trading debt fell 31 percent and market swings may hurt results this quarter.

Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest bank, has 2.2 billion euros of high-risk loans in the U.S. at its Drive Financial unit, according to Spanish newspaper ABC.

Sydney-based RAMS Home Loans Group Ltd. said a shakeout in global debt markets may cut earnings.

“It has become clear that this isn’t a U.S. problem, but a global problem,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, who oversees $145 billion as chief global strategist at TCW Asset Management Co. in Los Angeles.

Citigroup Chart

Charts pointed to further declines in the euro. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. said investors should sell the single currency against the dollar because technical charts indicate the currency may drop to $1.3370.

“A close of the euro below $1.3609 would signal a potential move to at least $1.3370,” the bank said in a note to clients. The $1.3609 level represents the July 30 low, according to Citigroup.

The yen rose against the New Zealand dollar and British pound as concern over credit market losses prompted investors to unwind carry trades, which involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies to fund higher-yielding investments elsewhere. It declined 0.2 percent against the dollar to 118.46, after earlier rising to 117.77.

`Moving Out’

“We are still in the period where people are moving out of risky assets,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA. “Carry trades are being unwound. The yen is likely to go up further in this environment.”

The yen has advanced against all of the 16 most-active currencies since July 20, when the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis sparked an exit from carry trades.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1 percent to 86.55 yen after retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.4 percent in June as rising borrowing costs curbed domestic demand. The Australian dollar declined 0.3 percent to 99.31 yen and the British pound fell 0.5 percent to 236.81 yen after a government report showed inflation in July was lower than forecast and below the Bank of England’s 2 percent target for the first time since March 2006.

Japan’s 0.5 percent interest rate is the lowest among major economies and has encouraged investors to borrow yen and buy higher-yielding currencies. The benchmark rate is 4 percent in the euro region, 5.25 percent in the U.S., 5.75 percent in the U.K., 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

The dollar extended its gains against the euro after a government report showed prices paid to U.S. producers increased more than forecast last month.

Source: Bloomberg Currencies

Investica – Inflation Data Weakens Sterling

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex economic news. 0 Comments

The sharply lower than expected inflation rate will increase pressure for a further interest rate increase to be postponed and this will undermine the UK currency in the short term even if the July data proves to be erratic.

Sterling weakened to five-week lows below 2.01 against the dollar on Monday before a tentative recovery to 2.0120 and managed to regain some ground against the Euro. The UK currency was holding close to 2.01 on Tuesday before weakening sharply after the UK inflation data.

Consumer prices fell sharply by 0.6% in July with the annual inflation rate dropping to 1.9% from 2.4%. The core inflation rate fell to 1.7% from 2.0% while the RPI rate also dipped sharply. There is likely to have been discounting earlier than usual in the season, but the inflation drop will certainly increase pressure for the Bank of England to postpone any further increase in interest rates.

The latest RICS housing-market survey suggested a deterioration in the sector, although the position was still under reasonable control. Given thee extent of market overvaluation, there will be the threat of a much more serious deterioration in confidence which would cause substantial Sterling damage.

Source: Investica

Jude’s Daily Signal 14 August 07 – GBPUSD

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex signals and GBPUSD. 0 Comments

30 minutes from now, look out for US PPI’s release. Terminate the trade should the indicator be more than -0.2%

Long/ Buy Stop GBPUSD at 2.0038, SL 1.9998, TP 2.0131 or move SL

Yen Gets Boosted

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex and forex economic news. 0 Comments

Mmn, that’s surprisingly sweet to the Yen. A few sources of news on this piece here.

The Japanese currency strengthened to near 118.0 against the dollar on Thursday and reversed Wednesday’s heavy losses against the Euro as volatility remained very high. The Japanese currency strengthened through the 118.0 barrier in Asian trading on Friday as Asian stock markets continued to weaken with markets looking at important dollar support near 117.50. The dollar attempted to stabilise close to 118.0.

Credit fears increased sharply again following the announcement that redemptions from three European funds would be suspended. Market caution will persist in the short term, especially as investors were hoping that market conditions were starting to normalise on Wednesday. The net impact is likely to be a sustained reduction in aggressive positioning which will provide important yen protection and a disorderly capitulation of trades could push the yen sharply stronger

There will be reduced expectations of an August Bank of Japan interest rate increase which will curb yen support if carry trades stabilise, but the extent of global credit fears will remain dominant in the short term

Source: Investica

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — The yen traded near a four-month high against the New Zealand dollar on speculation sharper swings in exchange rates will spur traders to reduce riskier investments.

The yen gained versus all 16 most-active currencies in the past week as investors cut holdings of higher-yielding assets funded by Japanese loans, known as carry trades, as losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages caused a credit squeeze. New Zealand’s dollar and Brazil’s real, favorites for carry trades, dropped the most. A measure of yen volatility rose to near the highest in 15 months.

“Volatility is at a high level, so this makes it hard to resume carry trades,” said Nobuaki Tani, a client manager of the Market Trading Office at Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “The yen may be bought.”

The yen was at 161.95 per euro at 7:50 a.m. in London from 162.13 late in New York on Aug 10. Japan’s currency traded at 118.34 per dollar from 118.40. It may gain to 161.50 per euro and 117.80 versus the dollar today, Tani said. Currency movements may be exaggerated by O-bon holidays, when Japanese often take week- long vacations to honor ancestors.

Volatility on one-month dollar-yen options reached 10.90 percent, close to 10.95 percent on Aug. 10, the highest since May 2006. Rising volatility may discourage carry trades as it implies the bets will be exposed to greater exchange-rate fluctuations.

High Yielders

The New Zealand dollar fell for a third day against the yen, by 0.4 percent to 87.87 yen from 88.24 yen. It reached 86.78 yen on Aug. 10, the weakest since April 19. Australia’s dollar, another favorite of the carry trade, rose 0.4 percent to 100.33 yen from 99.98 yen after its central bank forecast core inflation will quicken to 3 percent by December.

Japan’s 0.5 percent interest rate allowed investors to borrow yen and buy higher-yielding currencies. The benchmark rate is 6.50 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.

The risk of owning European corporate bonds rose, according to traders of credit-default swaps. Contracts on the iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies, a benchmark for the cost of protecting investment-grade bonds against default, rose 3 basis points to 48 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. An increase indicates worsening perceptions of credit quality.

The yen also gained on speculation investors will trim carry trades after a government report showed Japan’s economic growth slowed more than expected by analysts in the second quarter, making traders more reluctant to place riskier bets.

“Further carry trade liquidation will continue to support the yen,” said Danica Hampton, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. The yen may rise to 117.50 per dollar in the coming weeks, she said.

Japan Deflation

Gains in the yen may be limited by a government report today that showed the world’s second-largest economy hasn’t fully emerged from deflation, diminishing the likelihood the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week.

“The data may cause the BOJ to postpone hiking rates this month, especially amid global credit market concerns,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It’s a bit negative for the yen,” which may decline to 118.70 against the dollar and 162.30 per euro today, he said.

Japan’s gross domestic product deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year ago, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

The economy expanded an annualized 0.5 percent in the second quarter, from a revised 3.2 percent in the first, the Cabinet Office also said. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.9 percent increase.

U.S. Economy

The dollar may weaken on speculation losses on U.S. subprime loans will weigh on the housing market and slow economic growth, leading to lower interest rates.

U.S. data this week may show slowing industrial production, construction of new homes and manufacturing in the New York and Philadelphia regions, according to Bloomberg News surveys of economists. The dollar has fallen 4.5 percent against the yen and 1.6 percent against the euro since June 22, when Bear Stearns Cos. proposed to bail out hedge funds that lost money on securities related to subprime mortgages.

The Federal Reserve said Aug. 7 inflation remains “the predominant risk” after leaving rates at 5.25 percent. Interest- rate futures show traders see a 98 percent chance policy makers will cut the overnight rate for loans between banks to 5 percent at the next meeting on Sept. 18, from 46 percent a week ago.

“There’s a risk the U.S. economy doesn’t return to its potential growth rate and that’s not good for the dollar,” said Masahiro Sato, joint general manager of the treasury division at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. “Many people are calling for a rate cut, but the Fed still believes the underlying economy is strong. That may lead to a delay in lowering rates, which would contribute to market instability.”

The dollar may fall to 117.70 yen today, he said.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Weekly Forex Technical Analysis – 12th August 07

Published on 4 years, 5 months ago in forex and technical trading. 0 Comments

My homework for the upcoming new week as follows:

GBPUSD

Still on the uptrend. Not much changes. Seen a doji forming on the H4 and daily chart. Should be a good opening towards the beginning of the market. Watch out for the candle crossing the 200EMA lines and MACD reversing to the positive side for confirmation. Bullish

GBPJPY

Uptrend as with GBPUSD. Possible retracement to the top since its around the 23.6 level on fibo (H4 chart). Just watch out for signs on 30mins to 1hr for candles to cross 200EMA lines and make sure MACD goes in line with them. Not too sure on how the market is going to open for this one, but chances of it siding the bulls is higher. Unconfirmed

EURUSD

Channel is on the uptrend. The candle just crossed 200EMA on H4 but MACD isn’t showing yet. Will look at the shorter time charts on the market open before doing any trades for this one. It’s currently ranging between 23.6 and 50.0 on H4 fibo, closer to the bottom trend line for now. We’ll see it drop further down if it crosses 1.364x zone. Unconfirmed

USDJPY

Channel looks like its going down for the daily chart, but its looks good on short term charts like 30M, H1 and H4 for a retracement to the top side. Wait for further confirmations. Currently resting close to 23.6 region on H4 fibo. Bullish

EURJPY

This pair has been on the uptrend steadily on weekly charts till a week back. A doji formed on the closing of last week, with a further possible of going down on the main trends. Look out for short term charts like 30M, H1 and H4 and the correlation between 200EMA/SMA lines and MACD to confirm before entry. Unconfirmed

AUDUSD

Main trend for AUDUSD is up, although it seems to have been shaky last week. Look out for signs on MACD reversing for the smaller charts (and if it syncs with the candles to trip the 200EMA/SMA lines on the top), it can be a bull, or a bear, since it looks easier to break the trend line below. Unconfirmed

EURUSD

Main trend is heading downwards, but it seems like EUR is making a comeback with a strong closing prior to last week. It looks very strong on the upside, in lines with the 200EMA/SMA lines and is very close to the main trendlines on the top. Either it retraces back to the bottom or the top depends on the opening. Unconfirmed

USDCAD

Very weird pair, and not one of my favourites to tinkle with. Main trend is still heading down. Looks closer to the trend line on the bottom than the top, although smaller duration charts (30M, H1, H4) might be supporting more of a uptrend movement for the opening. Unconfirmed

EURCHF

Uptrend still continues with the channel. We’ll wait for H1 candle to pierce more prominently through the 200EMA/SMA line and more sure signs on MACD before entering a trade. The pair is ranging and might possibly retrace to the 38.2 – 50.0 fibo zone based on H4. Bullish