Trading Non-Farm Payroll, The Big Numbers

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Oct 5th 2007

Jude EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, forex articles 9 months, 2 weeks ago
Tags: EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, GBPUSD, NFP, Non farm Payroll, USDJPY.

It’s the time of the month again with Non-Farm Payroll in about 2 hours or so.

Let’s show you what I’d usually do before the big numbers and probably derive something from there and then with both fundamental and technical analysis. I’d start my day by visiting Forex Factory’s economic chart and check the forecast and the previous number.

The Numbers

Forex - NFP Numbers for the month of Sep

Nonfarm Employment Change: 100K appose to -4K last month. Good numbers eh! We’re suppose to see the dollar kicking a big fuss to the up side if the numbers tally then? Wait, let’s expand the directory icon to read what the rest has to say.

The Articles
Expands Forex Factory’s Indicator Folder Brings you more articles
So you’ve got like at least 6 articles. Digest them. One of the nice thing I appreciate from ForexFactory is their effort to group everything together in a category so it’s much easier for me to do my reading. Also, NFP is one of the most highly watched indicator, you’ll expect good number of articles written on it.

Done with the Reading

Aha! You’ve spent a good 1 hour or so to digest and have the rough direction how the market COULD go. (No, if you know how it will, you won’t need to read this anymore do ya?) So now you’re just waiting for the magic number announcement.

If NFP performs as expected with 100K or more, the dollar goes bullish, and if its a sub 100K results come up, uh uh! Dollar goes south.

Now to the Charts

Blow it up by clicking them, I always do have my fibos and trendlines drawn to see which side is the pair more prone to head.

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

Points to Take Note When Trading Big News

I’m not too sure how ECN broker works because I’ve never worked with one, but chances of both type of brokers will have problems filling your positions when big news come, but never ever try to open positions before the news. If you could, wait for awhile before opening a position, maybe in the 5 - 10 minutes range, where you still could catch some pips of the news result.

Else if you are experience enough, you can always set your buy stop or sell stop levels with your stop loss before the news. Good luck tonight.

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5 Responses to “Trading Non-Farm Payroll, The Big Numbers”

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1 Columbo Oct 5th, 2007 at 12:47 pm

Nice to sit on the side and wait for the news to settle.
2 Jude Oct 5th, 2007 at 1:01 pm

Agree
3 trader Oct 7th, 2007 at 9:43 am

I have to admit I was just astounded reading all of the stuff you do before big news events, like the NFP. This is why I love price and volume and why I would never spend (or as I see it waste) the type of time you put into this event.

NFP for Oct. have now passed as I write this. I was in my trade on the ES market for about 35 seconds I made 2400 pre commission… commission was worth 136 bucks.. you can do the math.

So how do I trade this magical time? The same way ALL trading should be done… plain and simple, you do what the market tells you via price and volume.. there is no secret and no chart or no news report that can predict the future..

No matter what you read or believe the market will do what it wants.

On this NFP number just like all the rest I wait for the number it either goes up really fast and pauses retracing slightly..or it goes down really fast and then pauses and retraces, it has done this every single number for all time..you simply watch the tape and when the opposite side of the move starts to be taken out in bug chunks you get ready to jump in…

you can miss it by a tick or two and not have any ill effects from having that happen…

It is very much like going to the ATM and withdrawing money I can’t for the life of me ever recall losing money or not making a killing on it….

On NFP fridays I usually set my alarm to go off ten minutes before the number, I stumble down to the trading room in my basement, wait for the rookies to jump in and make their mistakes… pick my spot, make my money then head back to bed for a nice relaxing Friday morning..

I am sure glad that there are so many rookie and technical traders, I really do enjoy spending their money
4 Jude Oct 7th, 2007 at 12:34 pm

J is that you?