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Wonder when is his ebook gonna be ready for sale, hmm.

US Dollar Index

The major trend of the US Dollar Index is still down. On Tuesday, the index went to a high of 77.83 before settling at 77.525, which is down by 0.50 compared to Monday. The low of the week is 77.08. Immediate resistance to the Index is 79.253 (13-Week Moving Average Line), followed by 80.00.

Currently the RSI is pointing sideway at 29.91%, indicating that the index is again losing its upward momentum in undergoing its major “upward” retracement, resulting a weakening US Dollar. However, there is still room for the RSI to go up to the 43% level.

General Market Commentary (October 23, 2007) by MG Financial Group:

The Dollar pared its gains against the Euro and Sterling as the bearish sentiment over the Dollar does not change after Monday’s unexpected Dollar strength. The Euro rebounded back to around 1.4250 versus the Dollar, while the Sterling passed through 2.05 against the Dollar.

The market will focus on US housing data this week and the FOMC next week. US existing home sales due tomorrow is seen to fall from an annual rate of 5.5 million units to 5.25 million in September. Also new home sales will be released on Thursday. The housing slump will continue to weigh on the nation’s economy and therefore put pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

Interest rate futures indicate that traders are pricing in a nearly 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.50 percent at its Oct 31 policy meeting.

EUR/USD

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “upward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. This week’s price candle maintains its bearishness after the pair’s rebound on Tuesday, indicating that the pair is still attempting to undergo its major “downward” retracement. Immediate support is at 1.4084, with next support at 1.4022 which is the upper band of the upward channel. Immediate weekly resistance is at 1.4343, which is the pair’s historically high. Weekly Stochastic is seen trending sideway at the 84% level, indicating that the pair’s upside is still limited.

From the daily chart, Tuesday’s rebound helps the pair to regain back half of its Monday’s loss, signaling the pair is still struggling to undergo its major downward” retracement. Its immediate daily resistance is at 1.4343, while daily support is at 1.4207, followed by 1.4154, 1.4065 and 1.4000. The Default MACD is showing a down-trend while the two pairs of Moving Average Lines are still indicating an up-trend. Daily Stochastic is seen crossing downward at the 63% level, indicating a possible downward move over the next few trading days. We are expecting the pair to undergo a major “downward” retracement, as its upside is limited.

From the hourly chart, the pair broke its intra-day resistance at 1.4187 and is now approaching its next intra-day resistance at 1.4260.

We are bearish towards the pair, as the pair’s upside is limited. If the pair continues to undergo its major “downward” retracement, we look forward to short the pair.

GBP/USD

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “upward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. On Tuesday the price candle turns into a doji, indicating that Tuesday’s rebound has recovered the pair’s loss on Monday. Its immediate weekly resistance is at 2.0652, which is its historical high. Its immediate weekly support is at 2.0398, followed by 2.0300 (13-Week Moving Average Line), followed by 2.0140. Weekly Stochastic is seen moving sideway at the 86% level, indicating a limited upside.

From the daily chart, Tuesday’s strong rebound recovers the loss incurred on Monday, indicating that the major “downward” retracement has again lost its momentum. Its immediate daily resistance is at 2.0546, while its immediate daily support is at 2.0480, followed by 2.0422 (10-Day Moving Average Line), 2.0360, 2.0322 (40-Day Moving Average Line). The pair’s short-term moving average lines (10 and 40-Day) are still indicating an uptrend. Daily Stochastic is seen moving downward at the 70 level, indicating that the pair is still making an attempt to undergo its major “downward” retracement. We are still expecting the pair to make another attempt to undergo major downward retracement as its upside is limited.

From the hourly chart, the pair is has reached above 2.0500. Both the hourly and 4 hourly charts are showing the pair to be over-bought.

We are still bearish towards the pair. If the pair continues to undergo its major “downward” retracement, we will go short on the pair.

USD/CHF

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “downward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. This week’s candle continues to maintain its bullishness after Tuesday’s fall. Its immediate weekly resistance is at 1.1772 (Weekly 23.6% Fibo Level), followed by 1.1848, 1.1904 and 1.1985, while its immediate weekly support is at 1.1642. Weekly Stochastic is still pointing upward at the 37% level, indicating a possible major “upward” retracement is on the way.

From the daily chart, Tuesday’s bear candle may just indicate a secondary “downward” retracement. We need a confirmation based on Wednesday’s candle. Immediate daily resistance is at 1.1739 (10-Day Moving Average Line), followed by 1.1824, while its immediate daily support is at 1.1607. The default MACD is showing a downtrend while the short-term moving average lines (10-Day and 40-Day Moving Average Lines) are still indicating that the pair is on its major “down” trend. The Daily Stochastic is seen moving upward at the 39% level, indicating the pair is undergoing a possible major “upward” retracement.

From the hourly chart, the pair met a firm intra-day resistance at 1.1777 (Intra-day 23.6% Fibo Level) and retraces back to its support a 1.1717.

The pair is undergoing its major “upward” retracement and we are watching to go long on the pair on pull-backs.

USD/JPY

From the weekly chart, this week the candle continues to maintain its bullishness. This may be its another attempt to crawl back to its upward channel. Both the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines are still indicating a down-trend. Its immediate weekly resistance is at 115.21, followed by 115.61 (Weekly 38.2% Fibo Level) and 116.41.Its immediate weekly support is at 114.15, followed by 113.00 (Weekly 50% Fibo Level) and 112.58. Weekly Stochastic is seen crossing downward at 51% level.

From the daily chart, the pair met a firm resistance at 114.85 (Daily 61.8% Fibo Level), with next resistance at 115.18. Immediate daily support is at 113.65. Its short-term (10-Day and 40-Day) moving average lines have crossed downward again indicating a downward move. Default MACD is also indicating a downtrend. However, Daily Stochastic is seen crossing upward at 21% level, indicating a possible rebound this week before resuming its downward move.

From the hourly chart, the pair has breached its intra-day resistance at 114.67, and is seen moving towards its next resistance at 115.20 (Intra-day 100% Fibo Level).

The pair looks like undergoing a possible secondary “upward” retracement. We may go long  for small profits, otherwise wait for it to resume its major “downward” retracement and go short on it.

EUR/JPY

On the weekly chart, this week’s candle turns bullish on Tuesday due to  the strength of the Euro. Its immediate weekly support is at 162.68 (13-Week Moving Average Line), followed by 161.53 (the lower band of the upward channel), 160.00 and 158.93 (52-Week Moving Average Line). Its immediate weekly resistance is at 163.63, followed by 168.08 (upper band of the upward channel). Weekly Stochastic is seen moving downward at 70% level. The pair may make another attempt to undergo a major “downward” retracement.

On the daily chart, the pair met strong support at 162.07 (Daily 38.2% Fibo Level) on Tuesday. Its immediate daily resistance is at 164.19 (10-Days Moving Average Line), followed by 165.16, while immediate daily support is at 163.31 (40-Day Moving Average Line), followed by 162.49 (89-Moving Average Line) and 160.92. Default MACD is indicating a downtrend while Daily Stochastic is seen crosiing upward at the 27% level, indicating a possible rebound this week before resuming its downward move.

On the hourly chart, the pair has breached above the price level of 163.55. The pair may do a pullback down to 162.35 today.

The pair may undergo a secondary “upward” retracement this week. We are watching to buy on pull-back for small profits.
TNT students, please use the updated TNT charting templates that was sent to you on October 20. Any resistance or support levels not found in the charts, please manually update them yourself as we will be sending you the next updated charting templates this coming Sunday.
The above analysis can also be used by our non-TNT students as a guide to their own trading. We welcome feedback from our non-TNT students regarding the effectiveness of this Daily TNT Market Analysis for your trading.

Have a great trading day ahead!

Cheers,

Clarence

Admin of The Forex Club

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