A part of the nobs network
I’m short at 0.8891 at the moment for AUDUSD, now let’s take a quick peek.
Its good for a short now, but it might just be a little retracement as the whole main trend is still on the upside.
Target Profit: 0.8813
Stoploss: +10 pips locked, 0.8881
Moments I have this posted, it got stopped out LOL. +10 pips.
With the Interest Rate statement released at 5.75% last month which brought the pound to an all new time height of 2.0561, the pound is taking a breath with a retracement to the 2.0280 level . Seasonal chart shows that the pair usually dives towards the end of July till Mid August.
England definitely have a stronger foothold on the economy as compared to their American counterpart with an all time PMI height in 3 years
The Bank of England is expected to leave the rates unchanged today at 5.75% today. Should the interest rate hold, expect to see some downwards action against the dollar towards the 2.0200 to 2.0150 level.
A reminder: Avoid trading any piece of news before the economic results is released. I understand people always have problem trying to short/ long positions during this timing, but it is definitely for the better if you can just wait. You can use sell stop to aid you and always remember to use stop loss level.
Here’s a little quick overview of what I usually do for my daily forex analysis exercise since there won’t be any signals out for today.
1. Check On Any News Release
I’ll hop onto Forexfactory to look at any economic news release on today’s calendar. Make sure that you have the timezone set accordingly to the one you are using.
These are the news that will be released tomorrow since there are no important news that will be released to today.
Any Red indicators are news worth looking at for any running market action. As you can see, USD Core PCI, USD Chicago PMI and CAD GDP will be released tomorrow. If you are a technical trader, try not to trade during any economic news release.
A fundamental trader that trades the news will take the advantage of the release to bag some pips (or alot depending on the volatility of the news. A big mover would be Non-farm Payroll). Those that are worth lesser to look at since you cannot forecast on the market directions are speeches by key persons like Bernanke.
2. Read RSS Feeds from DailyFX and emails from Forex mailing lists
After checking the daily releases on times to avoid trading for the day, I’ll be reading off RSS feeds from Daily FX and some of the forex mailing lists that I have subscribed to. We’ll touch on some of that list that might be worth your time in the next few blog entries.
The reason for the reads is to allow yourself to be updated on the market conditions and views from all different people before studying the charts on your own on the next step.
3. Studying Your Charts
Open up your favorite pairs or potential pairs you think you’ll be looking at closely for the day. Over the weekend, I will be using Daily and Weekly to look at the trend whilst during trading days, the charts I open are usually 30 mins, 1 hour and 4 hours. 30 minutes to look for signals, 1 hour and 4 hours for the entry.
Individual may vary since everyone can have different trading style. Whichever that works for you.
4. Place The Trades Carefully and Watch Over Them Like a Hawk
Once any trades are planned and executed, proper watch has to be maintained (Still it depends on what kind of trader and what sort of system you are using) in case of any spikes (which aren’t likely to happen if there are no major news indicators.. but it does awkwardly from time to time when institutional traders steps in). Stop Loss/ Trailing stops must be placed at all times.
Again, different traders might have different style. Some traders rely a lot on the Take Profit function of their brokerage trading platform as well.
5. Either Bag Your PIPS Or Cut Loss As Soon As You Feel Something is Really Wrong
Point is, if price action is going against your way and you feel that you should not have open it in the first place, chances are you have opened the position too soon without any confirmation from your own personal trading methodology (or either that, your trading method might be flaw in a way or two, practice makes perfect).
6. Reflect on Actions at the End of the Day
It’s a learning experience at the end of everyday. If there are mistakes made during the duration, I will be identifying the problem and try to make sure the same problem will never happen again (It still happens from time to time). That’s how it works for me.
What’s your routine like?
The rates remained unchanged as forecasted, bringing the Royal down about 60 pips from the annoucement.
AUD still remain fundamentally strong despite no changes to the Interest Rate as we can see a strong upward rebound on the next 8 hours.
Just bagged a little pips here as I haven’t move the SL in time before the rebound 
The numbers released were better than expected on AUD retail sales. Normally I wouldn’t be looking at other pairs apart from cable, but it looks good; and the reaction to it was not really that fast.
+15 pips on this one, stopped out on my SL.
AUD seems to be fundamentally strong.
Wasn’t looking very closely on the charts as Consumer Confidence isn’t a big indicator that’ll move the candles in any violent way. I’ve placed my stop sells in case the cable choose to crash down out of the trendlines; it didn’t
USD Consumer Confidence turned out to be even lower than forecasted, giving a quick boost to the pound around 30 pips before sliding back.
It would have been a good trade if you’re trading the news.
Fantastic day today with UK CPI Figures performing better than forecasted. It was enough to shove the pound up a big one; I look at it as a catalyst to push the cable to break the trendlines on the 4 hour.
Good trade today, I should probably start doing some charts as well so people can start correcting me if I’m wrong. lol.
+88 pips on gbpusd, +48 pips on eurgbp
Would have been a good trade if you’re trading the news; If I was in front of my terminal (Hell it’s demo still!)
The PPI figures turn out to be better than forecasted,
*(UK) FEB PPI OUTPUT CORE: MOM 0.5% V 0.2%E; YOY 2.7% V 2.3%E
- M/M highest since October of 2004
- Y/Y highest since November of 2004
- Prior YoY revised to 2.4% from 2.2%
*(UK) FEB PPI INPUT: MOM 1.3% V 0.7%E; YOY -1.1% V -0.8%E
- Prior MoM revised from -2.0% to -2.5%
- Prior YoY revised from -1.6% to -2.1%
*(UK) FEB PPI OUTPUT: MOM 0.3% V 0.2%E; YOY 2.2% V 2.1%E
- Prior MoM revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
- Prior YoY revised to 2.2% from 2.1%
The pound was bullish as expected and went on breaking the resistance at 1.9384 to cross the 200EMA level on the 1hr and form new support at 1.9415
Good day for both fundamental and technical traders I guess.
It was a disaster to trade the news today if you’re following the indicators’ release.
PMI
*FEB CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX: 47.9 V 50.0E – Prices Paid: 63.2 v 54.9 last
New Home Sales
*JAN NEW HOME SALES: 937K V 1.080Me, lowest rate since Feb 2003 – translates to -16.6% m/m
- prior revised to 1.123M from 1.120M
If you’re following the numbers, chances are you’d be shorting; and that’s what I did for the cable.
Stop loss triggered. Bad day.
It didn’t go with the analyst forecasts and the rates were up instead, pushing the pound down a little.
Chris,I-S gave me a little insight and tip on them. Should the indicators go in the same direction, enter a position.
Caught 4 pips (its nothing, but better than losing). It was a temporary bear run, as it rebounded up to 19652 and is going sideways now.