Archive for the 'forex articles' Category

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Bloomberg – Yen Falls as Stock Rally, Singapore Dollars Reach 10 Years High

Bloomberg has one of the best reads for foreign exchange news, remember to bookmark it for your daily reads if you can. Latest: Singapore dollar rises to 10 years high.

Source: Bloomberg

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — The yen fell to a seven-week low against the euro and the Australian dollar as a rally in Asian stocks gave traders confidence to resume buying higher-yielding investments funded by loans in Japan.

Japan’s currency dropped the most versus the New Zealand dollar, a favorite of so-called carry trades, and Asian currencies strengthened as an index of the region’s stocks rose to a record. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said its yen carry- trade unwind signal fell to 19 percent this week from plus 95 percent in early August, the height of the credit-market crisis.

“Rising share prices are giving investors risk appetite, bringing about the yen carry trade,” said Mitsuru Sahara, senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “The yen looks weak.”

The yen dropped to 164.35 per euro as of 8:46 a.m. in London, near the lowest since Aug. 9, when it rose the most since March after BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, froze three investment funds, reigniting concern the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was spreading. It was 163.79 on Sept. 28 in New York.

Japan’s currency also fell to 115.45 against the dollar from 114.81. The yen dropped against all of the 16 most-active currencies today and may weaken to 115.30 per dollar and 164.40 a euro, Sahara forecast.

Carry-Trade Favorites

The yen also fell to a seven-week low of 102.63 against the Australian dollar and declined to 88.26 against New Zealand’s, extending a 7 percent slide last month as the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 18 interest-rate cut bolstered confidence in carry trades. Australia’s currency rose to an 18-year high against the U.S. dollar today.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6 percent today, and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.4 percent after the Bank of Japan said today its quarterly Tankan index of sentiment at large manufacturers stayed at 23 points in September from June.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.

The dollar traded near an all-time low against the euro on speculation a U.S. report today will show factories expanded at the slowest pace in six months.

`Recessionary Phase’

The U.S. currency last month declined the most versus the euro in almost four years as traders increased bets the Fed will cut interest rates for a second time in October to revive the ailing economy.

“With a housing slump adversely affecting the whole situation, the U.S. economy will probably enter a recessionary phase in the first quarter,” said Kazuo Mizuno, chief economist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. “The dollar will head further south.”

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sept. 28 in an interview with BBC Radio 4 the slump in the U.S. housing market was the worst he had seen in his career and the chance of a U.S. recession is higher now than a few months ago.

The dollar traded at $1.4235 against the euro, down from a record low of $1.4283 and from $1.4267 on Sept. 28.

In the third quarter, the U.S. currency fell 6.8 percent against the yen, the biggest drop since the three-month period ended September 2003. It may weaken to 105 yen by year-end, Mizuno forecast.

JPMorgan Forecast

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, reduced its forecast for the dollar, predicting a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction this month will diminish the appeal of investing in the U.S. currency.

“With other major banks not keeping pace with the Fed’s active rate cuts, the interest-rate differentials are negatively working against the dollar,” Tohru Sasaki, chief strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a former chief currency trader at the Bank of Japan, wrote in a research note.

JPMorgan today predicted the dollar will fall to 112 yen at the end of this year, compared with a previous forecast of 116 yen. Against the euro, the dollar will drop to $1.45, weaker than an earlier forecast of $1.40, it said.

Asian currencies also gained, with Singapore’s dollar climbing to a 10-year high and South Korea’s won advancing to the strongest in two months on speculation investors will buy more emerging-market assets as the Fed keeps cutting rates, spurring demand for riskier securities.

The Singapore dollar advanced to S$1.4771, the highest since August 1997, from S$1.4857 on Sept. 28.

Two Fed Cuts

Interest-rate futures show traders expect quarter-percentage point rate cuts at the Fed’s next two monetary policy meetings on Oct. 31 and Dec. 11. They assign an 84 percent probability of a reduction this month and 62 percent odds of a move in December.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 52.5, a six-month low, from 52.9 in August, the Tempe, Arizona- based group may report today, according to a Bloomberg News survey. A reading greater than 50 signals expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.

Investica – Housing Fears Undermine Dollar

Source: Investica

 

Dollar confidence will remain weak in the short term and the inability to regain former support levels is a particularly worrying sign, but some limited correction is realistic.   

 

The dollar remained under pressure on Thursday and weakened to fresh record lows just beyond 1.4180 against the Euro with the trade-weighted index at new 15-year lows.

 

The US new home sales data was weaker than expected with a 8.3% monthly drop to an annual rate of 795,000. There was a further rise in inventories over the month while prices also dipped. The sales decline will reinforce concerns over the housing sector, although the data was actually greeted with some relief as, ahead of the release, there were rumours of a 10% decline.

 

Second-quarter GDP was revised down to an annual rate of 3.8% from 4.0% previously. The jobless claims was stronger than expected with a headline drop to 298,000 in the latest week which was the lowest figure since May. Although the data will remain volatile, the recent figures have not suggested heavy layoffs and this will also ensure strong interest in next week’s monthly payroll release. Strong data would curb expectations of further aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts with markets currently putting the chances of an October cut at around 90%.

Currency Trades Soar To 3.2 Trillion A Day

Another reason why liquidity of Forex gets better and better each day,

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Foreign-exchange trading rose 65 percent to a record $3.2 trillion a day on average, led by growth in hedge funds and foreign investors, the Bank for International Settlements said in its triennial survey.

The increase in the value of transactions from 2004 was the biggest in the survey’s 18-year history, the Basel, Switzerland- based BIS said today. At current exchange rates, turnover rose 71 percent. The Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity is based on data from 54 of the world’s central banks and monetary authorities.

“It’s really massive and it says a lot about financial globalization,” said Stephen Jen, the London-based global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm. “Trades can go up in any local market but the survey tells us that cross-border flows have shifted into a higher gear.”

Growing investor access to foreign markets, driven by an expansion in the economies of Asia, has helped triple foreign- currency turnover in the past 15 years. At the same time, hedge fund assets have risen to a record $1.76 trillion, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Transactions involving hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies rose to 40 percent of all trades, from 33 percent in 2004, said the BIS, which was formed in 1930 and acts as a central bank for the world’s monetary authorities. “Algorithmic” trading, or those managed by computer programs, also spurred growth and increased the speed of trades, according to the report.

Market Share

The U.S. dollar, which fell to a record low against the euro of $1.4154 today, lost market share. It was involved in about 86 percent of daily trading, down from almost 89 percent.

The falling dollar and the growing role of emerging-market currencies may have contributed to the slide in market share, according to the report. The euro’s share shrank to 37 percent, from 37.2 percent.

“This could be taken as yet another sign of the decline of the dollar, but I’m just not so sure,” Jen said. “As financial globalization occurs, markets should become more and more democratic.”

The Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee posted the fastest growth in global currency trading in the past three years as the economies of the world’s two most populous nations expanded. Average daily trade in India’s currency and related derivatives surged almost fivefold to $34 billion, from $7 billion in 2004. In China, volume grew ninefold to $9 billion.

Carry Trades

The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained market share as they attracted so-called carry trades. The Australian dollar was involved in 6.7 percent of daily turnover, up from 5.5 percent in 2004 while New Zealand’s share rose to 1.9 percent from 1 percent.

In a carry trade, investors borrow in low-yielding economies and convert the loans into other currencies to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. They profit by capturing the spread. Currencies in countries with higher relative interest rates tend to appreciate as carry trades gain popularity.

The Australian dollar has gained almost 16 percent during the past 12 months while the Swiss franc, another popular funding currency, has lost 5.1 percent.

The U.K., Switzerland and Singapore facilitated a larger share of trades. Switzerland’s nearly doubled to 6.1 percent. The U.K. increased its lead to more than 34 percent, from about 31 percent, and Singapore’s share grew to 5.8 percent, from 5.2 percent.

China’s Presence

Hong Kong’s portion rose to 4.4 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting China’s growing presence in the market, it added.

“It’s a geographic issue because of the time zone and the hedge-fund community,” said Simon Derrick, London-based chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “London has been a growing financial center over the last couple years. There are also natural centers that are rising in Asia and the Middle East.”

The U.K. also dominated the over-the-counter derivatives market, accounting for almost 43 percent of worldwide sales, followed by the U.S. with about 24 percent.

The derivatives market has expanded 71 percent since 2004, rising to $2.1 trillion a day, the BIS said. Cross-currency swaps were the fastest-growing segment, almost tripling, as traders hedged foreign-currency bonds. Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events such as changes in interest rates.

Interest-Rate Derivatives

The dollar and the euro led turnover in interest-rate derivatives trading. Their combined share still fell as derivatives linked to the Japanese yen gained, reflecting the country’s first rate increases in five years, starting in 2006.

“We’ve lived through a very benign and stable environment for the last several years,” said David Simmonds, global head of currency research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “People have become more comfortable and knowledgeable about these instruments in an environment that’s been accommodative. That’s enhanced risk-taking.”

Mergers and acquisitions may have also boosted trading as companies converted currencies to fund takeovers, the report said. Takeovers jumped to about $3.4 trillion last year, from $1.9 trillion in 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Trading with non-financial customers rose to 17 percent from 14 percent in 2004, the BIS said.

Source: Bloomberg Currencies

The boom days of the currency trade as well as buy to let mortgages are long since over and now it is back to lending the old-fashioned way. There are a few cheap loans that you can avail yourself of. Many of the buy to let mortgages may not be in the market two years from now. You must evaluate the interest rates at lender loans along with the various provisions offered by american bank before choosing any consolidation service and signing to make payments on a creditcard.

Forex Trading Is Tough? You Just Really Need Practice

I’m not good at explaining stuffs, except I can only say, the more you practice, the better you get. And treat all demos as serious as how you would treat your own money. Here’s two trades triggered on my account. One from yesterday (USDJPY) and the other today (GBPJPY).

USDJPY +101 pips (still running)

usdjpy

GBPJPY +137 pips (still running)

GBPJPY 4H

First step, Don’t Ignore Fundamentals

First for the fundamentals, I do look out on whether will there be any economic indicator releases which might affect my technical trade. None for the dollar, yen or pound that might.

Your Trend Lines Matey

I could do better with the help from Mouteki’s methods found actively popular in Forex Factory (kudos to their niche forum on forex) and would rewrite a trendline tutorial on the next few entries. Go with your trend lines. They are extremely important to determine your positions for either a long or short. Break outs pips are fairly nice and can be rewarding to pocket if you read it right.

Fibo? Hmm

Draw Fibo retracement levels. The levels you should be looking closely at are 38.2, 50.0 and 61.8. Again, if you do not understand how to draw them. I’ll touch them in the next few entries in conjunction with our Forex Trading Guide for Beginners. Trend lines and Fibonnaci Retracement levels work like perfect partners in crime.

MACD (Optional)

I like to look at MACD as my oscillator indicator for directions on overbought or oversold. Personally, I’ll be looking at longer duration charts (4H, Daily) to confirm the trend, and shorter duration charts (30M, 1H) to determine a new short or long position.

200EMA/SMA Lines For You Baby! (Optional)

Again, its individual preference. Any traders will argue on their own system and trading methodology, but in my case (All thanks to Dan), 200EMA/SMA lines works amazingly as a guide on market direction. My MACD could tell me where the direction is, and the lines will be where the price action of the candles might be going. Candle formations can tell you alot on market sentiments of buyers and sellers too. You can check out our candlestick tutorial if you’re interested on price action and candle stick formations (Our Nobs Network friend J swears by price action)

Stop Loss! Stop Loss!

Always set your SL level even for Buy/ Sell Limit or even Buy/ Sell Stop positions. They might be triggered and head to nowhere to your benefit (Or worse, margin call? lol). I’ve spent time tweaking my own SL levels by swapping my charts to line charts to look closely on the support and resistance level and picking a number comfortable to my benefit, the general guideline is never to lose 5% of your account size in all open positions.

Setting the SL too small might be a problem too, so again, practice and you’ll be able to spot which pairs are usually the volatile ones that might trigger your stoploss for nothing. (The Cable is one good example).

SL can also be your good friend to bag pips if you’re not sure whether you should be exiting soon (Just move it up and don’t be greedy so you can set targets of how many pips you should be locking). At least you wont have to pay pips spread to your broker if its goes towards your intended buying direction. No?

PIP away!

Identify a good exit with Fibonacci, Trendlines, and Support and Resistance from short to long term charts!. Bottom line, Practice!

What is Carry Trade? US ‘September Effect’?

DailyFX has been my daily fixtures for forex articles. I find this one particularly interesting.

What Will the Dow ‘September Effect’ Do to Carry Trades?

Before we go any further on commenting, let’s add a term to your trading knowledge on Carry Trade.

Definition of Carry Trade from Investopedia,

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates – which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

Which simply means that if you know how to do it properly, you can make money from one lower interest rate pair to make out from the higher pair. But there are always risk when you do that. What if the rates of the currency you changed dropped? Uh oh, lost suffered.

This is what exactly most of the carry traders are facing at this point, whilst all eyes are on Yen and Swiss Franc, should the correlation of the Dow Jones and carry trades be  close, we’re expecting a tough month for traders who specialises in carry trade.

A Trader’s Opinion on US Subprime Mortgage Situation

Got this lifted off from Alan’s Online Money Making Opportunities. Maybe you could go there for some good reads from time to time. Interesting, yet.. shockingly true ;)

Here is a very informative e-mail I received from Mr. Felix Homogratus from whom I receive forex trading signals on a regular basis. Some of you might know and already subscribe to his free service. Anyways, he sent out this informative e-mail that shares what a forex trader thinks about the whole sub-prime mortgage debacle. Enjoy it, and hopefully it will enlighten you on the current situation.

–begin quote–

My partner Rob Grespi, from kingforexsignals.com, was recently asked to write an article for a major financial magazine in Europe, regarding the current economic condition of the US, and subprime mortgage crisis. As a courtesy, he wanted you to get this article, before all the other readers of that magazine get it :) Here it is:

BEGINNING OF ARTICLE

Due to the recent market volatility, provoked by the sudden “subprime loan debacle”, many subscribers have been interested to know my personal view on this subject, especially that it is something I have been talking about for the last 4 months. But before I go on with this little dissertation I want you to understand that I don’t pretend to be an economist, I simply use “basic economics 101″, which is something our financial leaders maybe should use.

Basically, when it gets to be complicated and does not make sense, chances are it isn’t right. However I am convinced that they basically complicate the principles of a healthy economic logic so that the average unaware person gets lost and therefore doesn’t ask any questions in fear of sounding stupid, or they just repeat what they hear on the media to sound educated during cocktail parties.

I told my subscribers in the room that the recent hasty moves from the Fed, (from several massive injections of cash into the market to the recent 1/2 point rate cut was a desperate and hasty move. This “patch the holes” moves, is rendering the market a great disservice, and it will make things a lot worse for the long term.

Basically, the Fed is adding water pump to a sinking ship, instead of fixing the holes, and eventually the ship will sink anyway, because nothing has been fixed. But I don’t think they care, they need to make the masses feel better now, because they need a happy consumer to keep on buying crap.

However as harsh as it sounds and as painful as it will be (but not a politically popular move) it is a needed economic cycle, needed to purge the excess and this imbalance that have been created in order to begin a new healthy, and lasting positive economic cycle. The “band aid solution” ( “instant feel better”) will only delay the inevitable and once it comes, instead of going thru a “mild and short recession” it will be a lot more painful possibly creating if not a depression but at least a SEVERE long and VERY painful recession .

This credit debacle is far more serious than most even begin to realize, and here is why I think so:

I have been talking for quite a while now (way b4 all this emerged) that we are at a critical credit and liquidity imbalance , and it goes all the way down to the low income consumer. Our consumption society as a whole is now mostly based on borrowed money, practically no one nowadays has the discipline to save his cash to buy XYZ item or a car or take a vacation. Most spend more time planning “credit vacation” than they spend planning healthy finances.

For example I have witnessed in both Europe and the US (I have lived in both continents long enough and have the advantage of knowing both very, very well) and observed consumption habits on both continents and the similarities are very scary, of course the US is by far still the “the leader of the pack”.

In general I have observed that families with medium limited incomes were basically shopping on credit most of the time, either for clothes, cars, food, electronics, and vacation. During X-mass time I was amazed to see so many getting trapped in the “buy now pay later” ingenious concept of stores, not to mention store’s credit cards which of course are a dangerous sucker trap. Nowadays just about everything they have in their house doesn’t belong to them, but to the financing company, and that includes X-mass toys and vacation they took 2 years ago that they are still paying for, and of course expensive cars.

In my parent’s days they saved for everything. But at the end whatever they had in their house was 100% paid for, their vacation was 100% paid for, and they still managed to save some hard cold cash for rainy days.

Today the people not only don’t have a decent nest egg, they just don’t have any, but they drive Mercedes, BMW’s, have entertainment centers that would make George Lucas look like a hobo….

In my parent’s days whomever was driving an expensive car (well most of the time) really could afford it and actually had money. Today I see in Europe for example, 20 year old kids making 1.500 euro/month at best driving expensive automobiles. Basically, this consumption society is completely out of whack and is imbalanced.

So when it comes to people and real estate, why are we so surprised? It is the same mentality, they have used their overpriced houses like an ATM machine, courtesy of clever and creative financing method to either make some other ludicrous over priced real estate acquisitions they can’t afford (hell, they could barely afford the first one in the first place if it had not been for (“creative mortgage facility”), or buying all types of useless adult toys, not to mention extravagant home improvements or vacations.

They bought into the nonsense of these realtors and the media that real estate would go up indefinitely, these realtors, most of whom are no more than improved shoes salesmen and Tupperware housewives have been taught in an 8 hours seminar learning the cookie cutter classic economic theories why real estate will always go up. The funny thing is I hear the same logic being used in the US and in Europe. They all must attend the same 8 hours seminars, and all become economic experts at the end of it, why not!!! They have certificates of completion to prove it…And the media is basically owned and operated by the ones that want the mass to consume and spend for the benefit of some other companies they own. “The basic Asylum runs by its patients”

Now you might think what is then the relationship with subprime loan? well here it is in a nutshell: ( I will simplify the process for you):

This is what Banks, and financial institutions do (which are more worried of making short term money to obtain fat bonuses and fat executive salaries):

They borrow money in Yen (Japan has the lowest interest rate of all industrialized country) actually at almost 0 %, and they either invest in equity and debt markets around the globe (also creating a bubble on borrowed money, btw), and also they loan that borrowed money to other financial institutions that create all sort of “exotic mortgages”, and “credit facility”, you name it. Then some other layers of financial institutions re-package all these different forms of loans into high yield financial instruments to be parceled out and sold back to the financial institutions that had borrowed money in the first place. Basically, they are creating a gigantic credit Ponzi scheme on borrowed money with the consumer as its base for guarantee, and since the consumer himself is over extended, I don’t need to tell you what will happen next.

Of course we try to find an easy typical fall guy “Wall Street” for creating all these derivative instruments, all they did is they found an opportunity and ran with it to make money.

The real “crew of culprits “are the highest and also the lowest level on the food chain, the higher ones: well, we vote for them and the mass buy into their self serving demagogic promises and speeches, the lowest one is the consumer gullible naivety, and greed.

Almost all financial experts want us to believe that whatever the fed is doing is good. Think again.

This will not save the people that are about to lose their homes, this will not save the basic overextended consumer, since most all exotic Mortgage and credit companies are closing their doors anyway, and even the conservative ones are now on “survival mode”, they will not cut any slack to the overextended and delinquent consumer, on the contrary. No matter how much liquidity the FED is pouring and no matter how many times they cut rates. The surviving institutions are now in contraction mode, too busy doing damage control or even saving themselves. The only money they will loan back in the market will be to people that don’t need it.

The only thing you will see will be fake “dead cat bounces” but at the end the real estate is “cooked” (actually it has been cooked for over 2 years , the masses just didn’t know it yet and still don’t even know it or to what extend it will be cooked). Houses that are sold today for 2 million dollars they will be lucky to get 1 million for it, and if they even get that.

Keep in mind that in the next year another $700 billion or so of “adjustable mortgage are due to reset, that is over $170 billion more than this year, and more adjustable mortgages will be reset after 2008.

This massive liquidity and credit imbalance which started over that last 20 years or so is only about to enter a severe readjustment and it has barely just begun. I just don’t know how long and how it will play out, but it will play out.

Of course the Fed/government will play some of its “voodoo” economic short term magic tricks just in time to benefit some “crooked, lying, greedy, performing monkey ass politicians” election or re election, and it will make the “masses” feel better in short term, just in time to cast their vote, all this trumpeted by their favorite interested (paid off or own) accomplices “cheer leaders”, the media.

Also don’t forget, because it is related and will play a major role in this grand skim of things, that the US is running an unprecedented account deficit , basically in less than 8 years the current US administration have borrowed more money than any other administration put together, so if the country enters a severe recession ( which I think it will ) not only the US government does not have a “nest egg” but it has blown its wad by already overextending itself “debt wise” and in a period of decent economic time I may add, (for their own benefit btw, but that is another subject all together) .

So when we finally enter this severe recession the US government has already blown most of its “borrowing options”(during the good times), the only option it has left will be to go much deeper in debt rendering the US dollar as valuable as the pesos, the consequences of that will also be severe, and they will have to raise taxes drastically, just to pay the ” bar tab” of the previous administration. So when I hear deficit don’t matter they will re think that theory very soon, but of course the “fearless leaders” who left the restaurant with this “orgy tab” will be out of office by then, enjoying their pontificated retirement and collecting book deals, consulting deals, speech deals, and other corporate deals they worked out before, leaving the already over extended US taxpayers to pick up the “orgy bill” (via increased taxes) for decades to come. Hell, the US taxpayers are still paying for the S&L debacle they don’t even know it, but trust me there (that was when Mr. Bush senior was VP, interestingly enough, most best S&L debacle asset that went into auctions were picked up at ridiculous bargain prices by some of Mr. Bush Senior’s friends .The public was only allowed to bid for the chairs and tables and the bailout package was provided again- courtesy of the taxpayers.

END OF ARTICLE

It’s Felix again :) So I finished reading this article, and I am like: “So Rob, what’s your point?” I guess I like to transfer everything into practical advice.
Here is my opinion on this whole situation. After the Great Depression in the US, World War II followed. During World War II, people went into factories to build military equipment, in order to satisfy the demands of the War. After the War was over, the momentum of American production stayed, but instead factories shifted to producing a lot of the goods for local consumption, so the economy flourished. Now history repeated itself with Asia. Asia was in a mess, before the Americans started to massively consume the goods that were produced there. Asians have been working very hard for very little money to satisfy the Americans and Europeans. The only problem is that instead of paying them real money, the US has mostly been issuing them a bunch of “I owe you X amount notes”. And then the US consumer has been buying these goods by issuing the same notes to its government. One of the reasons why the US economy flourished so much is because it’s been getting basically stuff for FREE :) Everybody thinks that Asians depend on the US and will keep giving them free stuff forever, but they have such big population, and they have so much momentum in their economy that when the time comes, they’ll simply make a similar switch like the US did after World War II, and will simply start consuming their own produced goods.
So what’s the point? The point is that the US has been issuing so much money in order to continue getting stuff for free, that it even stopped reporting its money supply a while back. Bottom line is that I think that every person that currently owns US dollars is extremely lucky, because they own something that has a lot more buying power than it’s supposed to. So if I were you, instead of using your dollars to buy consumer goods that will depreciate in value very rapidly, I would buy something that’s more real and permanent, like gold and silver. Imagine that you own a bunch of toilet paper, and by some madness, everybody thinks that it’s worth a lot, but you as a sane person realize, that very soon there will come a day, when people will realize that toilet paper has value indeed, but not as much value as everybody thought it had during this madness.
Anyway, that’s my take on it, I may be wrong. I know most Asians are very nice people, so they may just forgive all the debts, and consider that all the manufacturing work they did was nice exercise for their bodies, and they loved doing it so much, that they don’t mind not getting paid for it.

Thanks :)
-Felix

The Difference Between a New Trader and a Professional Trader

Reading this off DailyFX weekly power tutorial that’s definitely worth the read and mentioning if you’re new.

One of the great things about being a Power Course Instructor is that I get to work with people who are really making a commitment to improve as traders. They have tried trading in a demo account and perhaps even a live account and have not done well, so instead of continuing to use the same approach, they decide to ask us for help. One of the things they really want to know is what the difference is between a new trader and a professional trader.

Our answer is this:

New traders think about how much money they can make while professional traders think about how much money they can lose.

Continue to read more on the article

On the other hand you’ll get to know how to use trailing stops too.

38 Stages of A Successful Trader

Thanks to paultag for sharing this entry on NN forex thread, pretty much describes how you feel and work through different stages as a trader, if you have the intention to be one.

Hello all,

I ran across this article when I first started trading FOREX. At the time I thought it was a good article but was sure I would learn from the mistakes of others and breeze through all 38 steps.

Well it is now 4 years later and I am now bouncing up and down between 34 and 36.

Rather you believe it or not, these are the steps that all traders follow as they move along the road of mastery.

38-Steps to becoming a Successful Trader

Interesting, good road map to see where you are and whats ahead of you:

1. We accumulate information–buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2. We begin to trade with our ‘new’ knowledge.
3. We consistently ‘donate’ and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our ‘updated’ knowledge.
7. We get ‘beat up’ again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to ‘outside news’& other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13. We get ‘overconfident’ & market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.

Most People Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved

15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results, as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don’t follow them.
30 We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

Embarking on Forex? Just a Gentle Reminder


Found this on MoneyTec Forums and I’m sure everyone will agree that this is an excellent read. Serves its purpose as a reminder especially to newbies that embarking the route to trading isn’t easy and absolute diligence must be done before taking it.

Thank you for providing information for new traders with NFA information concerning spot forex trading. I have been in this site for just a few days and I have read some pretty outrageous claims to fame. If its too good to be true….run like hell ladies and gentlemen. I am licensed and registered by the NFA, and believe me it is not in any licensed brokers best interest to make outrageous claims of “rags to riches” in spot forex or anything for that matter. I can’t afford million dollar fines from the CFTC or the NFA…let’s not forget jail time too. ):

Caution to new traders:

1. Beware of anyone who claims consistent wins without any losses. This is impossible, and not reality.
2. Beware of brokerages that offer outrageous leverage such as 1000:1. I have actually seen this before in the web with a brokerage in Sweden.
3. And especially beware of anyone promising you 100% guaranteed wins by purchasing their trading software. If that were true…countries would be literally fighting for this imagenary magic trading box.

The reality of trading is that you are going to lose trades no matter what, and it’s best to grasp this reality now, and not learn a hard costly lesson down the road.

Absolutely trade with money you can afford to lose.

You should never, ever trade with borrowed money. I have read a few posts in here with clowns trading with money they got from cash advances from credit cards or loans of all sorts. I don’t think Citibank will be happy that you are trading/losing their money.

Please remember that no matter how much effort or study you commit to forex, there is no guarantee you will make a living out of this. In fact the odds are overwhelmingly against you. A wall street study www.wsj.com on the profitability of spot forex traders basically came down to this: 95% of all forex traders in the study who started with $50,000
or less lost all of their capital in less than a year. “Thats right, all of it.” The study suggested that you have better odds getting hit by lighting a thousand times in one year than making a small pot of say five grand turn into a fortune.

Thats why this is a serious game, and should only be played by someone with cash that can be lost & not detroy you financially.

Spot forex like futures is a zero-sum game..that is for every winner there is a loser. That means for a trader with dilusions of striking it rich must successfully trade & take someone elses money to make money!!! I sure as hell am not going to give it to you…and the market makers won’t. And probably none of the guys in this site either.

Fiction is a very popular product. After all, thats why the movie industry is so successful. “Fantasy sells.”

P.S. Reality in perspective= Sometimes even the so-called experienced expert traders get blown out of the water, ” Hint hint…Long Term Capital Management.”

Stay safe and happy trading.

A Self Help Crash Course for Trader

Courtesy of Forexfactory, this is a really good read.

A large number of traders that I work with express the feeling that they are somehow sabotaging themselves: repeating the same mistakes day after day, giving back valuable profits in a fraction of the time it took to earn them. Their intuition is that there is some kind of pattern to what they’re doing; they’re repeating the same mistakes again and again. They realize that they’re not mentally ill and don’t have a history of out-of-control behavior, so they are understandably confused as to why they can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot.

In this article, I will summarize a few ideas central to brief therapy, a discipline which uses very active techniques to accelerate change processes that might otherwise take months or years. Brief therapies have been subjected to considerable research scrutiny, and the consensus is that they are highly effective in changing emotional and behavioral patterns over a period of weeks, especially among people who do not have chronic, diagnosable mental health problems. A summary of this research, as well as a thorough description of the how-to’s of brief therapies, is included in a text for beginning therapists that I recently co-edited. Applications of brief therapy to trading can be found on my free website and in my book The Psychology of Trading. All of those sources are linked below. This article will focus on ways that traders can serve as their own brief therapists.

Step One: Regaining A Sense of Control

By the time traders seek help, some are angry and frustrated; others are depressed, anxious, or confused. The common denominator is that they experience the sense of a loss of control over their trading. Think of it this way: If you feel in control of something in your life, there’s no way that thing will make you feel depressed or anxious. If I’m in control of my health, an illness will neither depress nor worry me. If I have control over my family budget, an unexpected expense will not prove upsetting. What turns stress into distress is the perception that we no longer control something that is important to our well-being. If I feel that I have lost control over my marriage, my health, or my career, the first result will be anxiety: I will become mired in doubt and uncertainty. If I continue to perceive a lack of control over important aspects of my life, that anxiety will turn to depression. The perception, “I don’t think I can handle this” will become “I know I can’t handle it.”

Our first goal in your turnaround is to regain a measure of control. It won’t happen all at once or in all areas of your life, but any movement in the direction of increased control will help you feel more optimistic, more energized. Depression, as psychologist Martin Seligman pointed out, is grounded in learned helplessness: the sense that one is powerless. Any constructive exercise of personal power helps dispel the helpless state.

A step-by-step strategy to regain control is far better than an unfocused, shotgun effort. Many people, fired up to make grand changes at the start of a New Year, tackle large goals–only to find themselves frustrated by their inability to reach these quickly. It is much better to define smaller, achievable goals that you can build upon than grandiose visions that will take months or years to realize. Your effort to take control expresses your fighting spirit: your determination to not let events control you. Even if that effort does not lead to a complete turn-around–and it usually won’t–it is an important part of the psychological turnaround that precedes larger life turnarounds.

The research literature in brief therapy tells us that the very first thing to change is not behavior; it is mood. People begin the change process by feeling greater well-being. They become more optimistic, more hopeful. This is because they have taken some concrete measures to regain control over their lives.

Take the example of Lance Armstrong in his book It’s Not About the Bike. He describes in detail his reactions to learning that he had testicular cancer just as his cycling career was blooming. Each piece of news seemed worse than the last one: his cancer turned out to be late-stage; it metastasized to his brain. Even the optimistic physicians gave him no better than even odds at survival and most assumed his career would be over, due to the toll that chemotherapy would take on his lungs.

Armstrong first took control by learning everything he could about his disease. He became a partner in the treatment process, not just a passive patient accepting a doctor’s advice. The knowledge he gained helped him assemble a team of professionals to assist in his care, including some world-renowned physicians he would never have known about had he not educated himself. When he was faced with a choice of who would ultimately guide his cancer treatment, he selected a physician who understood his patient’s love of cycling and took the extra step of finding chemotherapy agents that would not devastate his lungs. During the difficult chemo process, he refused to use the wheelchair offered to him, preferring to walk on his own. When a nurse brought in a lung machine to test his capacity, he angrily blew into it as strongly as possible and told her to never bring the machine into his room again. Staying in control of the small things helped him deal with the big ones—and sustained his fighting spirit.


Finding Your Control

If there is a “cancer” in your life or trading, removing it may be as difficult as it was for Lance, albeit in a different way. The problem isn’t going to go away overnight and may require wrenching life changes. Your control, however, like Lance’s, will come from your refusal to relinquish control. You can learn everything possible about your trading difficulties the way Lance made himself an expert on cancer, so that you become an active agent in your turnaround. A thorough review of the year’s trading results will tell you a great deal about where you made money and where you lost it. Most important, it will reacquaint you with your trading strengths as well as weaknesses. Very often, I’ve found, such reviews reveal that a relative handful of trading days made the difference between a dismal trading year and a good one. If so, you want to focus your attention on the common denominator within that handful of losing days–that is going to be the first challenge to tackle. Sometimes that common denominator is a time of day or type of market—you’re losing money overtrading markets that become slow Sometimes the common denominator is an emotional state: You’re trading while you’re frustrated or angry. As we’ll see, becoming an observer to your problem patterns is half the battle. When you an observer to a pattern, you are outside the pattern, not lost in it. That provides a measure of control.

While you are reviewing your performance, you also want to focus attention on your big winning days: clearly these were occasions when you operated outside the sphere of your problems. What was different in your trading approach on those days? What was different about your state of mind? Sometimes we forget that we enact solution patterns as well as problem ones. Recognizing what you’re doing when you’re trading well—become an observer to success as well as failure—increases the odds that you’ll be able to reproduce these solutions when you need to.

One trader I recently worked with was near despair over his tendency to give back his gains as the trading day wore on. By the time we talked, his risk management was erratic, he was reading market action poorly, and his timing was off. He felt that he had so many trading problems that he would need to find a different occupation. When we carefully reviewed his trading, however, a single pattern emerged: He tended to lose money on trendless days, especially when his mornings started out poorly. He typically raised his size into the afternoon, increasing his risk even as he faced less opportunity. The result was that he would get chopped up with his maximum size. Our initial strategy for gaining control was very simple: We treated the morning and afternoon as separate trading sessions and set a maximum allowable loss for each. This level was large enough to allow him to trade normally, but not so large as to prevent him from recovering from a bad start to the day. Finally, we created a rule that his initial position size could never be raised to his maximum if he was down money. In other words, he could only use maximum size when he was trading well, not when he was in the mood for revenge. I helped him monitor the following of these rules and, before long, they became positive habits. As he stopped the large losing days, he saw the results in his bottom line–and in his enhanced feelings of confidence and control.

This example is not unusual among good traders in slumps. What seems like an overwhelming set of problems is actually a single pattern that recurs in different ways, at different times. If the pattern can be broken, surprising changes can result, because it’s the pattern–not basic trading ability–that is the problem. That is why brief therapy works. It does not attempt to change your life. It focuses on specific patterns and changing those. The first step in the change process is regaining the feeling of control by simply figuring the pattern out: learning everything you can about the problem so that, like Lance Armstrong, you can find the right kind of help–and the right helpers. Even if your initial efforts lead to nothing more than stopping what isn’t working and focusing on what you’re doing well, that will contribute to putting you in the psychological driver’s seat. As one trader put it when he began to regain his sense of control, “The problem is my pattern (of overtrading); I’ve been telling myself that I’m the problem.”

Separating you from your problem is the first step toward mastery.


Step Two: Finding the Theme Behind the Pattern

The mere recognition that you don’t have many problems–just many manifestations of a single problem pattern–is in itself relieving. It is much easier to change a single pattern than to make multiple changes across a variety of situations. Most patterns are expressions of themes that run through our lives, much like a theme might run through a novel or symphony. Rarely does the pattern only show up in one facet of life, such as trading. More often, it cuts across areas of life, which is why it has so many manifestations and can leave us feeling like we’re bundles of problems.

Let’s take Jack, a talented young trader who has achieved inconsistent results at his trading firm. Jack grew up as a rebellious teen in a strict Eastern European household. He loves his parents and feels they love him, but he resented their imposition of “old world” values. He resisted their curfews when he was young and recalls with bitterness how they prevented him from having friends when he was a teenager. He later rebelled against their desires that he attend school locally and marry a woman of the same faith and national heritage. Instead, Jack went out of state to college and experienced a varied social life. He experimented with drugs, missed many classes because of fraternity partying, and disappointed his parents with mediocre grades. Jack recalls many battles when he came home during vacations, as he and his father went toe to toe over his “wild” behavior.

What brought Jack to my office initially was not his trading, although that had taken a downturn. He was depressed following the breakup of his first serious relationship. His girlfriend found out that he had cheated on her, and she promptly broke up with him. When he tried to convince her to give him another chance, she confronted him with evidence of multiple cheatings and ended things for good. “I really f***** up, man,” Jack explained to me. “I don’t know why I do those things. As soon as I have something good, I f*** it up. It’s like I’m trying to hurt myself.”

“What other ways do you f*** up the good things?” I asked.

You saw what happened yesterday,” Jack raised his voice. “I was up in the morning, trading well, and then I just went nuts in the afternoon. I broke every one of my rules and ended up the day losing money. I don’t know how many times I pull that s***. Just when I think I’m trading well and doing all the right things, I pull something like this. I have to be the world’s biggest f*** up.”

The average person listening to Jack would conclude that he has several problems: conflicts with his family, relationship problems, and lack of discipline in his trading. Indeed, the sense that every important part of his life is messed up is a big part of why Jack feels depressed. He feels out of control, unable to stop himself from self-destruction. In reality, however, he has one pattern that shows up in several spheres of life: he experiences expectations as limitations on his freedom and threats to his independence. He saw his parents’ rules as punitive constraints, and he experienced commitment in a relationship similarly. And his trading rules? At an emotional level, they were no different from his parents’ rules–which is why he periodically rebelled against them, to the detriment of his P/L.

Most of our themes, like Jack’s, begin during an earlier period of life in which there was conflict. Indeed, the themes usually begin as attempted solutions to those conflicts. Jack’s parents really did limit his freedom during his growing up years, and his rebellion was his way of trying to find a balance. Although it generated arguments at home, it worked for him: he made friends, broke away from his small community, and gained experience with a broader slice of life. The problem was that this strategy became overlearned, which made it automatic and patterned. His way of dealing with constraints at home, through rebellious assertions of independence, became his way of dealing with all constraints–even the ones that he knew were good for him, such as monogamy in a serious relationship. What he knew and how he told himself he should act–and what he experienced emotionally–were very different things. He thinks he has f****** up his life, but in fact he is simply repeating a pattern that had worked for him in the past.

The problem is that he has outgrown that pattern. It no longer brings him freedom.

An Exercise for Finding Your Themes

It is very difficult to change your patterns if you don’t know what they are. As we’ve seen, becoming aware of your patterns–and separating yourself from them–are essential first steps in the change process. But it can also be difficult to locate your themes when you are immersed in them. They occur so automatically–and feel so much like parts of ourselves–that we’re generally oblivious to their existence, much like a fish must have little awareness of water.

One exercise I ask people to do is create a set of sine waves on a blank sheet of paper. The waves have multiple peaks and valleys. I then ask traders like Jack to write down on the peaks all the best experiences of their lives. On the valleys are written the worst life experiences. Afterward, as we look across the peaks and valleys, the themes jump out at us. Jack felt best when he felt free, when he was doing his own thing. He felt worst when he was tied down and after he unsuccessfully fought against the feeling of being tied down.

If Jack were to create separate sine wave charts for his family, relationship, and trading lives, the correlations would be enormous. The same feelings, the same situations recur. And recur. And recur. Freedom and constraint…happiness and angry rebellion.

I invite you to try an exercise and create your own sine wave chart. Include at least seven peaks and seven valleys. Carefully go through your life and identify the best experiences you’ve had and the worst: the times you’ve been happiest and most fulfilled and the times you’ve been most miserable. If there are very special happy times, draw those peaks higher; if you’ve had some real low periods in your life, make those valleys deep. You don’t need to have one peak per valley and vice versa. At good periods in your life there might be many peaks; at other times multiple valleys.

Once you’ve completed the chart, focus your attention horizontally. Look across the peaks and across the valleys. Try to find a single theme or common ingredient for most or all your entries. You’ll notice that many of the manifestations of a theme appear different on the surface, but are united by the same feelings and similar behavior patterns. Someone who grew up feeling inferior as a child now compares himself to other traders and feels inadequate; a person who unsuccessfully tried everything to please an alcoholic parent now finds herself overwhelmed by perfectionistic expectations that can’t be met in trading. To find your theme, look for a common emotional state and a characteristic way of handling that emotion. Most of our themes are old, outmoded coping patterns.

Jack, I’m pleased to report, was able to extricate himself from his pattern. It actually happened in a funny way. During one meeting, he became convinced that the pattern was controlling him and he rebelled against it! By pretending that his pattern was a set of tyrannical parents, he found it easy to summon his motivation to not fall into the pattern. He followed his trading rules, not because he learned to love rules, but because he saw trading well as an exercise of choice and free will–and saw rule-breaking as a return to the control of his past.

His first step of change, however, was to understand himself and why he was doing what he was doing. He wasn’t self-defeating. He was simply doing what he had (over)learned to do during a difficult developmental period. The good news from the sine wave chart exercise is that you have positive patterns as well as negative ones. Our job is to tip that balance and create more peaks than valleys.


Step Three: Accelerating The Change of Problem Patterns

Years ago, it was assumed that problem patterns would take a long time to change, given that they had formed over a period of years. As I mentioned at the start of this article, a collection of methods known as brief therapies has shown that a wide range of patterns can be changed in a matter of days or weeks. One element common to these therapies is that they rely on experience and learned skills rather than talk with a therapist in the creation of change. Indeed, one reason that they can accelerate change is that they exploit hands-on techniques that can be practiced from day to day.

Several elements of brief therapies are helpful to traders seeking to change their cognitive, emotional, and behavioral patterns:

* Focus – Brief therapies seek change in one pattern at a time, rather than trying to make multiple changes or overhaul entire aspects of personality. Very specific patterns are targeted for change; then the process moves to other patterns if needed. Thus, for example, traders might work first on techniques for reducing anxiety and then later learn skills for changing negative thought patterns.

* Structured Learning – Change begins by learning and rehearsing skills away from problem situations and then progresses through gradual application to real-time stresses. For instance, a trader might learn and rehearse a cognitive method for identifying unrealistic worries, challenging them, and replacing them with more realistic appraisals. First this method would be applied to imagined situations through the use of guided imagery; then it would be applied to progressively more difficult situations at home and in trading.

* Use of Homework – Each skill learned is practiced between meetings until it becomes familiar and automatic. This practice begins with imagined situations and progresses to challenges encountered in daily life. Very often, as part of the focus and structured learning, homework assignments will target very specific aspects of patterns. For instance, a person who is trying to stop smoking might work on not smoking after meals, using techniques to handle cravings that are unique to those situations.

* Mastery – Traders don’t work on more difficult aspects of patterns until they have mastered simpler ones. The idea is to create a sense of mastery, so that individuals can once again feel in control of their lives. A skill is first practiced and mastered in the office before it is assigned as homework; it is first applied to situations in imagery before being applied to real life.

From the above, you can see that these are techniques for accelerated learning. Brief therapies are effective because they create powerful learning experiences that are repeated until they are internalized. By working on problem patterns day after day in a structured learning environment, people can change lifetime patterns with remarkable speed.


Bob, The Frustrated Trader

The beauty of these methods is that they readily lend themselves to direct applications to trading. Let’s take the example of Bob, a trader who has made little money in the past year after a profitable 2004. As the market has become less volatile, he has found it difficult to adjust his expectations accordingly. Consequently, he finds himself taking overly large risks, then becoming fearful and overly cautious. By the time he sought help, he felt completely out of control, ready to give up entirely.

It turns out that Bob had a mixed relationship with his father, a highly achievement-oriented athlete who encouraged Bob to excel in sports. Bob played a number of sports in high school, but never excelled. He often felt that he did not meet his father’s expectations, and he resented his father’s efforts to motivate and improve him. As a result, the latter part of Bob’s high school career was marked by frequent arguments and one big blowup in which Bob left home and lived with relatives for several weeks.

When I suggested that Bob was still fighting his father–only now it was a “little father in your head”–my observation made sense to him. He realized that he was driving himself in his trading the way his father drove him in sports. His inability to meet his expectations in the past year led him to talk to himself the way his father talked to him. “Do you really want to continue living out your problems with your father?” I asked Bob. “You left home for a reason. Maybe now it’s time to leave that little father in your head.”

We started with a simple exercise in which Bob simply identified all the times during the day when his internal father took over. This was our focus. It became clear that Bob’s negative self talk occurred primarily when he was frustrated with his trading results. As with sports, it occurred during competitive situations in which Bob failed to win. Our structured learning began with mental rehearsals of frustrating situations in trading: missing out on profitable trades, having the market reverse against winning trades, taking losses, ending the day in the red, etc. Each time we vividly imagined the negative scenarios, Bob imagined his father berating him–and then imagined himself refusing to accept the criticism and standing up for himself. We did not assign the mental scenarios as homework until he mastered them in the meetings with me. We also did not tackle visualizations of highly frustrating situations until Bob could keep his cool and control his negative thoughts while imagining less stressful events. Every meeting and each homework assignment was structured to generate experiences of mastery.

Eventually, we took the techniques to real-time, when Bob used his methods for interrupting negative thoughts and challenging his internal father while trading. Dozens of experiences with imagined situations and routine home frustrations helped prepare him for the inevitable frustrations of trading. By the time he applied his new skills and outlook in real time, he had already had many success experiences from our earlier work. This confidence was invaluable in tackling situations that formerly had seemed beyond control.

How to Follow Bob’s Example

You can create your own brief therapy along the lines of Bob’s experience. The key is forming an image of your problem pattern—the one you identified across the valleys of your sine wave chart—that will energize your attempts to undo the pattern. Bob created a visual image of a miniature father in his head to help him realize that he was doing to himself what his father had done to him. Jack’s strategy was different: he equated his pattern with the loss of control he felt as a child and used that feeling to rebel against his pattern. When alcoholics make life changes in AA, it is because they come to visualize drinking as an obstacle, something that will ruin their lives. This visualization provides them with powerful images that tap into their motivation to change.

Your own brief therapy will work if it taps into a similar motivation. Your image doesn’t have to be negative to be effective. One client of mine years ago had a tendency to beat up on herself. She had been sexually abused as a child and blamed herself for what had happened. Her pattern, not surprisingly, was guilt. After we talked about how her guilt worked for her as a child—it kept her silent so that she would not face the severe physical abuse that her angry brother experienced—but now was holding her back, she decided to hold a funeral for her guilt. She literally buried pictures of her childhood and created the image of her pattern as a part of her that had died and now must be left behind.

Many times brief work is effective because it focuses people on the peaks as well as the valleys: their positive patterns and not just their negative ones. Indeed, figuring out solution patterns often provides insight into what you can try differently when you catch yourself starting to get caught up in an old problem pattern. One person I worked with described peak experiences of great peacefulness: during vacations, while feeling close to others, etc. This gave us the idea of using meditation to create moments of peacefulness when the problem patterns were likely to emerge. By interrupting old patterns and enacting new ones, he eventually made relaxation a positive habit.

Conclusion

All of us have learned to deal with life challenges, and some of the ways of coping that we learned now interfere with our happiness and success. This doesn’t mean that we are mentally ill, and it doesn’t mean that we cannot regain control over our lives. Just as negative patterns can be learned–and overlearned–we can create intensive learning situations to instill new, more positive patterns. What keeps negative patterns alive is our unwillingness to confront our worst fears. Bob overcame his pattern because he was willing to face frustration again and again–in imagery and real life–until he had completely silenced his father’s critical voice.

Facing our greatest sources of fear and distress–but with new skills and a new perspective–is the essence of brief therapy. Typically this is a three-step process: 1) regaining a measure of control; 2) identifying one’s repetitive patterns; and 3) using imagery and learned exercises to disrupt those patterns. If Lance Armstrong can retain his sense of purpose in the face of late-stage cancer and Viktor Frankl can retain control over his life in a concentration camp, no trading situations need dominate our lives. We learn problem patterns, we can unlearn them, and we can learn new, positive patterns. With the help of brief therapy innovations, the unlearning and relearning can happen more quickly than ever.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago and Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY. A clinical psychologist and active trader for the past 20 years, Brett is the author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley; 2003) and numerous articles on trading psychology for financial publications. His book chapters on brief psychotherapy can be found in such reference works as The Psychologist’s Desk Reference (Oxford University Press, 1998) and the Encyclopedia of Psychotherapy (Academic Press, 2002). His newest, coedited book, The Art and Science of the Brief Psychotherapies (American Psychiatric Press, 2005), has been selected as a core training text for psychiatry residency programs.

In July, 2004, Dr. Steenbarger stepped down from his medical school faculty position and began intensive work with traders at Kingstree Trading. He also coordinates their training program for new traders. Drawing upon an intensive research program that began in 1998, he has created a number of unique measures of market trend, momentum, and institutional activity designed to aid short-term traders. These measures–and the trading strategies derived from them–have been chronicled daily since June, 2002 in the Trading Psychology Weblog and on his web site.

Dr. Steenbarger does not offer coaching or other commercial services to traders, but welcomes questions and comments at Steenbab@aol.com.

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