Archive for the 'forex signals' Category

FXCM Free Forex Tutorial

Despite my inactivity, Jaclyn still faithfully updates me on FXCM’s happening. FXCM is now offering free email education, a 12 installment email tutorial on forex trading,

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I’m not so much fan of forex signals, but I’ve signed up on their forex course to see what’s going on. Free anyway!

Technical Trade – A Hawkish AUD Ahead of AUD/USD

It’s just a few hours away before the announcement of key interest rates from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for AUD. All technicals seem to be pointing a bear for the AUD.

AUD/ USD 4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD on 4 Hour before RBA Interest Rate Announcement

200 EMA/SMA is right at the bottom with a trendline which looks very vulnerable to break. MACD/ Stochastics is looking and waiting for the decisive moment to crossover as well.

AUD/ USD 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD on 1 Hour before RBA Interest Rate Announcement

AUD/USD 30 Minutes Chart

AUDUSD on 30 Minutes before RBA Interest Rate Announcement

200 EMA/SMA is on top, MACD is below, we’re looking at a perfect setup for entry with the MACD converging to the bottom. I’m always referring to 30 minutes chart for entry, 1 hour/ 4 hours chart for trend and indication.

I’m opening a position at 0.9539, with a stop loss position of -30 pips, I’m expecting AUDUSD to breach the trendline at 0.9507.

Here’re some supportive Fundamental Anaylsis from Others

  1. TradeTheNews’s Eben on A few thoughts on trading AUD/USD ahead of RBA rate decision at 0:30 EDT
  2. DailyFX’s John Riveria on Will A Hawkish RBA Lead To A Fresh AUDUSD Multi Decade High?

Shalom, and good luck.

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY – March 3rd 2008

GBP/USD

Cable has been consolidating for 4 days now. I think it’s time for a move outside this triangle like range.

Watch out for a close outside the triangle I’ve drawn for you. Hopefully it won’t be a fake breakout and we will see cable shooting at least 80 – 100 pips in that direction. I’m counting for a break below. A bar closing below 1.9805 is the signal to go Short; while the Long trigger is way up at 1.9960.

GBP/USD

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY stayed in a huge range, +900 pips for two months now. Today it broke through the support going down over 100 pips, then price returned quickly inside the range. On the 4h chart no bar closed below 204.60. A bar closing below this level will signal a further drop in this pair, one I am willing to take it that happens. I think the upside potential is limited at 205.85 today. I wouldn’t take any trades between 204.60 and 205.85, there is no clear direction between these two levels!

GBP/JPY 1

I wish you a profitable week trading FOREX!
OptimusLH

Aftermath of December Interest Rate Cut (At 25 Pts)

US Dollar’s the big winner after the announcement cut apart from a few pairs which gained back its own momentum (like USDCAD)

Let’s see the few big movements.

GBPUSD

2.0516 to 2.0334 = 182 pips move

GBPUSD 4 Hours at December US Interest Rate Announcement

AUDUSD

0.8897 to 0.8711 = 186 pips move

AUDUSD 4 Hours at December US Interest Rate Announcement

USDJPY

110.76 to 110.46 = 130 pips move

USDJPY 4 Hours at December US Interest Rate Announcement

So how many pips have you bagged? (I wasn’t around today to bag any, but I hope you did!)

Cable Still Looks Good For a Long

Just after the release of ISM results (not much reaction on price action btw), I was looking and scanning around the few hour chart duration of cable (GBPUSD).

Placed a long position at 2.0650, Stop Loss at 2.0620

30min gbpusd

The stick has just pierced through the 200EMA/SMA lines on the top, for 30 mins and 1 hour. It’s in the 38.2 range and might swing a little within the range. If you hit the 4 hour chart, MACD might reverse to the top still,

4hrs gbpusd

I’ll hold the position (or exit) till 2.0717 region and continue to see if it breaks the trendline on the top. Good luck.

Dan’s Forex Market View – 19 Oct 2007

Hello,

Here are my thoughts for today. No explanations or charts this time, just simple ‘signals’.

AUD/USD (0.8915)

Trend: Downward

Take profit target at 0.8775

Stop loss (and reverse position) at 0.8990

GBP/USD (2.0442)

Trend: Uptrend

Take profit target at 2.0600

Stop loss (and reverse position) at 2.0370

Regards,
Dan
Life Holdings Management

Dan’s Forex Market View – 18 Oct 2007

Hello,

Just a quick look at 3 currency pairs. I hope you will find my technical analysis observations useful.

GBP/USD - 4h Chart.

GBP/JPY - 1h Chart.

USD/CHF - 4h Chart.

Don’t forget to keep your trading system simple, it will work better!

Regards,
Dan
Life Holdings Management

MG Financial – Fed Minutes Supported USD

From ForexNews,

The greenback edged up higher against the majors in early US trading, firming to 1.4017 versus the euro and 117.48 against the yen before easing in the afternoon ahead of the FOMC monetary policy minutes. The currency market remains quiet as traders returned to their desks following the holiday to a dearth of fresh economic news.

The dollar continues to benefit from last week’s stronger than expected jobs data, which tempered expectations for further aggressive rate cuts from the FOMC. Nonetheless, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25-basis points at the end of October.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed a unanimous decision to cut rates by 50-basis points to 4.75% due to the extremely weak conditions of the housing market, tighter financial conditions and their potential impact on the economy. Members expressed concern that a weaker economy would further exacerbate tightening credit conditions and reinforce the slowdown. Although members remained concerned about the upside inflation risks, the Fed is more confident a decline in inflation would be sustained. Also, the Fed sees further slowing of employment likely but labor markets should remain fairly tight.

Trading Non-Farm Payroll, The Big Numbers

It’s the time of the month again with Non-Farm Payroll in about 2 hours or so.

Let’s show you what I’d usually do before the big numbers and probably derive something from there and then with both fundamental and technical analysis. I’d start my day by visiting Forex Factory’s economic chart and check the forecast and the previous number.

The Numbers

Forex - NFP Numbers for the month of Sep

Nonfarm Employment Change: 100K appose to -4K last month. Good numbers eh! We’re suppose to see the dollar kicking a big fuss to the up side if the numbers tally then? Wait, let’s expand the directory icon to read what the rest has to say.

The Articles
Expands Forex Factory’s Indicator Folder Brings you more articles
So you’ve got like at least 6 articles. Digest them. One of the nice thing I appreciate from ForexFactory is their effort to group everything together in a category so it’s much easier for me to do my reading. Also, NFP is one of the most highly watched indicator, you’ll expect good number of articles written on it.

Done with the Reading

Aha! You’ve spent a good 1 hour or so to digest and have the rough direction how the market COULD go. (No, if you know how it will, you won’t need to read this anymore do ya?) So now you’re just waiting for the magic number announcement.

If NFP performs as expected with 100K or more, the dollar goes bullish, and if its a sub 100K results come up, uh uh! Dollar goes south.

Now to the Charts

Blow it up by clicking them, I always do have my fibos and trendlines drawn to see which side is the pair more prone to head.

GBPUSD

Forex - GBPUSD 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

EURUSD

Forex - EURUSD 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

USDJPY

Forex - USDJPY 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

Points to Take Note When Trading Big News

I’m not too sure how ECN broker works because I’ve never worked with one, but chances of both type of brokers will have problems filling your positions when big news come, but never ever try to open positions before the news. If you could, wait for awhile before opening a position, maybe in the 5 – 10 minutes range, where you still could catch some pips of the news result.

Else if you are experience enough, you can always set your buy stop or sell stop levels with your stop loss before the news. Good luck tonight.

Watch out for Euro

So Euro maintained its Interest Rate at 4.00%

Source: Bloomberg on Euro Rises; Trichet May Signal ECB Key Rate Has Yet to Peak

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — The euro snapped three days of declines against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank policy makers won’t signal that borrowing costs have peaked after today’s rate-setting meeting.

The ECB kept its benchmark rate at 4 percent today, as forecast by all but one of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while it assesses the impact of a credit-market slump and the euro’s appreciation this year. President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Vienna.

“We’re seeing fresh euro strength today on speculation the ECB will stress it’s maintaining its vigilant stance on inflation,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho Capital Markets. “Trichet is also going to want to stress his independence from those politicians calling on him to stop the euro strengthening further.”

The euro rose to $1.4112 by 12:50 p.m. in London, from $1.4090 yesterday in New York.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Sept. 20 Europe may be less competitive if borrowing costs aren’t reduced. Prodi expressed his concern about the strength of the euro in a conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The comments have stoked expectations that policy makers of the ECB, the 27-member European Union and the Group of Seven nations will discuss currencies at meetings in Washington that begin Oct. 19.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net ;

Let’s look at the charts. It looks nice for a little retracement before heading towards north again.

eurusd h4 04oct