Archive for the 'EURUSD' Category

MG Financial – Fed Minutes Supported USD

Published on 4 years, 7 months ago in EURUSD, forex articles and USDJPY. 0 Comments

From ForexNews,

The greenback edged up higher against the majors in early US trading, firming to 1.4017 versus the euro and 117.48 against the yen before easing in the afternoon ahead of the FOMC monetary policy minutes. The currency market remains quiet as traders returned to their desks following the holiday to a dearth of fresh economic news.

The dollar continues to benefit from last week’s stronger than expected jobs data, which tempered expectations for further aggressive rate cuts from the FOMC. Nonetheless, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25-basis points at the end of October.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed a unanimous decision to cut rates by 50-basis points to 4.75% due to the extremely weak conditions of the housing market, tighter financial conditions and their potential impact on the economy. Members expressed concern that a weaker economy would further exacerbate tightening credit conditions and reinforce the slowdown. Although members remained concerned about the upside inflation risks, the Fed is more confident a decline in inflation would be sustained. Also, the Fed sees further slowing of employment likely but labor markets should remain fairly tight.

Trading Non-Farm Payroll, The Big Numbers

Published on 4 years, 7 months ago in EURUSD, forex articles, GBPUSD and USDJPY. 4 Comments

It’s the time of the month again with Non-Farm Payroll in about 2 hours or so.

Let’s show you what I’d usually do before the big numbers and probably derive something from there and then with both fundamental and technical analysis. I’d start my day by visiting Forex Factory’s economic chart and check the forecast and the previous number.

The Numbers

Forex - NFP Numbers for the month of Sep

Nonfarm Employment Change: 100K appose to -4K last month. Good numbers eh! We’re suppose to see the dollar kicking a big fuss to the up side if the numbers tally then? Wait, let’s expand the directory icon to read what the rest has to say.

The Articles
Expands Forex Factory’s Indicator Folder Brings you more articles
So you’ve got like at least 6 articles. Digest them. One of the nice thing I appreciate from ForexFactory is their effort to group everything together in a category so it’s much easier for me to do my reading. Also, NFP is one of the most highly watched indicator, you’ll expect good number of articles written on it.

Done with the Reading

Aha! You’ve spent a good 1 hour or so to digest and have the rough direction how the market COULD go. (No, if you know how it will, you won’t need to read this anymore do ya?) So now you’re just waiting for the magic number announcement.

If NFP performs as expected with 100K or more, the dollar goes bullish, and if its a sub 100K results come up, uh uh! Dollar goes south.

Now to the Charts

Blow it up by clicking them, I always do have my fibos and trendlines drawn to see which side is the pair more prone to head.

GBPUSD

Forex - GBPUSD 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

EURUSD

Forex - EURUSD 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

USDJPY

Forex - USDJPY 4HRS Chart Before Non-farm Payroll

Points to Take Note When Trading Big News

I’m not too sure how ECN broker works because I’ve never worked with one, but chances of both type of brokers will have problems filling your positions when big news come, but never ever try to open positions before the news. If you could, wait for awhile before opening a position, maybe in the 5 – 10 minutes range, where you still could catch some pips of the news result.

Else if you are experience enough, you can always set your buy stop or sell stop levels with your stop loss before the news. Good luck tonight.

Watch out for Euro

Published on 4 years, 7 months ago in EURUSD, forex articles and forex insights. 0 Comments

So Euro maintained its Interest Rate at 4.00%

Source: Bloomberg on Euro Rises; Trichet May Signal ECB Key Rate Has Yet to Peak

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — The euro snapped three days of declines against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank policy makers won’t signal that borrowing costs have peaked after today’s rate-setting meeting.

The ECB kept its benchmark rate at 4 percent today, as forecast by all but one of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while it assesses the impact of a credit-market slump and the euro’s appreciation this year. President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Vienna.

“We’re seeing fresh euro strength today on speculation the ECB will stress it’s maintaining its vigilant stance on inflation,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho Capital Markets. “Trichet is also going to want to stress his independence from those politicians calling on him to stop the euro strengthening further.”

The euro rose to $1.4112 by 12:50 p.m. in London, from $1.4090 yesterday in New York.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Sept. 20 Europe may be less competitive if borrowing costs aren’t reduced. Prodi expressed his concern about the strength of the euro in a conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The comments have stoked expectations that policy makers of the ECB, the 27-member European Union and the Group of Seven nations will discuss currencies at meetings in Washington that begin Oct. 19.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net ;

Let’s look at the charts. It looks nice for a little retracement before heading towards north again.

eurusd h4 04oct

It’s Friday, Pairs To Look Out Next Week

Published on 4 years, 8 months ago in EURUSD, forex insights, GBPJPY and USDCHF. 0 Comments

Well well, its Friday. What we’ll be looking at tonight or next week ;)

GBPJPY

GBPJPY4H 20SEP

The range for the pair is closing soon with breaking out either on the top or bottom side of the trendline (more prone to the top now). It’s between 38.2 to 50.0 on the fibo and looks good to breach the 200EMA/SMA line on the top with MACD strength bias to the top as well.

Watch closely on the MACD for more confirmation.

EURUSD

Eurusd h4 20sep

With EURUSD setting new heights and breaking the 1.4100 psychological level (topped at 1.4120), we might be seeing a little retracement bouncing to the 23.6 zone on fibo at least before deciding on whether to trace back to the top OR uhm, yea down to the bottom instead.

USDCHF

USDCHF 4HR 20SEP

Swissy looks awefully strong against the weak Dollar for the week and we notice it might have bottom out. I’m expecting dollar to retrace back to at least the 38.2 zone (1.1885) should MACD reverse. 200EMA/SMA lines are right at the top, indicating the possible direction of our price action.

Note, all these are just my analysis on pairs to look out for. Always enter on your own diligence with price action of the candles and stop loss.

Euro Dollar Sets All Time High

Published on 4 years, 8 months ago in EURUSD and forex insights. 0 Comments

Again, Euro sets its course to top its new heigh at 1.4087, will it be breaching 1.41xx zone? (EURUSD)
It still looks strong and will probably not be retracing anytime soon from now.

Dan and I were just chatting about this pair and he showed me this chart.

Elliot Wave

We concluded that the pair has strength still to go up before a huge retracement base on Elliott Wave.

What’s your view? ;)

US Core Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Market Sentiments Later

Published on 4 years, 8 months ago in EURUSD, market sentiments and USDCAD. 0 Comments

A turn around for the dollar before interest rate statement next week? Or a huge tumble?

Interesting pairs to look later would be USDCAD, where the candle positions are now closer to the bottom trend line and EURUSD, which the Euro might breach its new height again.

What’s your take?

Humpty Dumpty’s Corner – EUR/USD Straddle July 11th

Published on 4 years, 10 months ago in EURUSD and forex signals. 0 Comments

Hello Forex Fans,

Im noticing a double top on EU.  My charts say one way, but my gut tells me another, so Im gonna straddle this puppy.

The 100 fib line is right around 1.3785.  Im going to put in a buy limit order to fill me at 10 pips above that number.

The low so far today has been 1.3730.  Im  going to put in a sell limit order to fill me at 10 pips below that number.

Why am I doing a straddle?  My MA’s are all up, but there’s also a double top on the one hour chart.  EU also seems to have run out of steam at this point, after reaching the 100 fib line.

So here it is:

Limit order to buy at 1.3795.  20 pip TP and 35 pip SL

Limit order to sell at 1.3720.  20 pip TP and 35 pip SL

Good Luck!

Humpty

Humpty Dumpty’s Corner – The EUR/USD surprise. July 10th

Published on 4 years, 10 months ago in EURUSD and forex signals. 0 Comments

Hello Forex Fans,
I woke up this afternoon to a very big surprise. Overnight, the EUR/USD reached my 161 fib line. This pair seldom ever climbs like this in this short of time period. It has hit the fib and is bounching back. If the present is any evidence of past, the EUR/USD will head down now. This call may take a few days, but I think its worth getting in on.

EUR/USD short at 1.3715.

TP1@ 1.3665, TP2@ 1.3625. TP3@ 1.3605

SL@ 1.3750

Good Luck!

Humpty