Archive for the 'forex' Category

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Forex Mentor’s Email List

Published on 4 years, 2 months ago in forex resources. 2 Comments

I’d like to say even though I’m not a fan of paid subscriptions, Peter Bain’s email subscription works fine for me. It’s informative and definitely work your Gmail (or whatever email you’re using) space.

Here’s one tip from Peter and I urge you to seriously consider signing up for his mailing list. It’s not that irritating as compared to others who’re actually asking you to buy a product.

Even though the 200 EMA may be trending up on the hourly and 15
minute charts, make sure to observe the attitude of indicators like
MACD. If it is trending down, with good angle and separation
between it and its trigger line, wait for it to turn up into ‘buy’
mode, before hitting the enter key. Just because the trend is up,
as reflected by the 200 EMA, you have to be patient, and wait for
the right entry point(s) – as price saw-tooths its way up the
chart.

The age-old truism in trading circles is: “Buy the dips in an
uptrend – sell the rallies in a downtrend.” Use the 200 EMA to find
out what the true trend is, and then be like a fox in the bushes
waiting to pounce – ever so swiftly.

This is just one of the many Big Dog trading secrets we talk about
on a regular basis in the members area at www.forexmentor.com. See
you there – and at the top – and at the bank.

CAD Interest Rates For December

Published on 4 years, 2 months ago in forex and forex articles. 1 Comment

This is a reading source from Forex Factory which I think is pretty good to what’s going to happen later in a few hours time.

There are five big central bank meetings this week, starting with the most intensely debated and arguably the closest one from Canada. Apart from the monetary policy decision, which comes out later today at 1400 GMT, the BOC governor designate Mark Canary would speak tomorrow and the current governor David Dodge would speak on Thursday, before the Canadian employment report caps the week on Friday. As such, there is something to look forward to from Canada all through week.

The Bank meets 8 times during any year and this is its last meeting for the year 2007. So far during 2007, the BOC has increased rates once in July by 25 basis points to 4.50%. Importantly, this is the second last meeting for the current BOC Governor, David Dodge. The current consensus view is for no change in rates; however there are many big banks are calling for a cut in rates

Fundamental Outlook:

According to the GDP data released on Friday, the Canadian Economy grew by 2.9% in Q3, ahead of BOC’s projected level of 2.5%, and this is the most likely reason cited for the no change in rates. However, the Canadian Economy looks to be in trouble going into Q4, with exports being the most vulnerable. Further, there has been three back to back quarters of inventory accumulation, which means if the domestic demand slows, then there could be fears of a sharper than expected slowdown in Q4.

The Bank of Canada core inflation index for October was 1.8%, at its lowest since June 2006 and importantly below the mid of the BOC comfort zone for inflation of 1.0% and 3.0%.

Fundamentally, softer interest rate regime would be justified, as it would weaken the CAD, the rally in which has been the primary driver for the current slowdown, which is expected to deepen further to 1.8% (approx) in Q4. Further, the CPI figures are also well behaved currently, and lower interest rates would also ensure continued domestic demand to the current inventories. BOC could signal a rate cut in January-08, if they don’t cut interest rates this time itself.

Markets Expectation:

The Canadian bonds, tracking the US bonds, have had a sharp fall over the last few months, and currently the 2-Year yields are near 3.65%. The 10-Year bond yields are at 3.98%. The Bond charts are given below.

The short-term interest rate futures are currently discounting a no chance in rates at this meeting, however a cut is being expected at the next meeting on 22-Jan. As such, the most likely outcome of this meeting is a “Dovish”.

The BOC’s last statement on 16-Oct too was dovish, which was best highlighted by this line from their statement…. “All factors considered, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, with perhaps a slight tilt to the downside.”

CAD would weaken sharply if there is a cut in rates, as such a move is only half-baked into the prices. On the other hand, a no change in rates would produce a small pop, which could be sold into, depending on the dovishness of the statement. However, a very sharp fall or a rally too many not be expected in the USD-CAD, given that the event risks for USD and CAD later on in the week.

Technical View:

USD-CAD is in an uptrend currently, which is likely to continue further over the next few days, possibly towards 1.0200 over the next few days. A rally above that could see further strength in the pair. Importantly the strong Support for the pair would be at 0.9750, a break below which may not be seen over the next few days. The pair remains a “Buy Dips”, while above the latter.

Trade Wise, Trade Well!

Breaking the top looks fairly easier than falling down, but I’d be wary of the reversing MACD happening on both the short and long term charts. Just wait out for the news release and don’t open any positions prior the news.

Cable Still Looks Good For a Long

Published on 4 years, 2 months ago in forex encounters, GBPUSD and losing trade. 0 Comments

Just after the release of ISM results (not much reaction on price action btw), I was looking and scanning around the few hour chart duration of cable (GBPUSD).

Placed a long position at 2.0650, Stop Loss at 2.0620

30min gbpusd

The stick has just pierced through the 200EMA/SMA lines on the top, for 30 mins and 1 hour. It’s in the 38.2 range and might swing a little within the range. If you hit the 4 hour chart, MACD might reverse to the top still,

4hrs gbpusd

I’ll hold the position (or exit) till 2.0717 region and continue to see if it breaks the trendline on the top. Good luck.

Happy Thanksgiving 2007

Published on 4 years, 2 months ago in forex. 0 Comments

Wishing all my US readers and friends a Happy Thanks Giving 2007.

Enjoy your holiday and turkey!

Interesting Forex Advertisement by CMS

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in forex. 6 Comments

Thanks to Masa for sharing, check out this cool video advertisement by CMS Forex

Forex Resource Focus – Forexpm.com

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in forex resources. 5 Comments

Here’s another new forex resource focus I’d like to introduce.

ForexPM.com

Ran by Peter Marsden, one of our author on No bullshit Investment Community has a down to earth cool website where he shares his knowledge on the site as well as experience via a blog.

Learn about forex, the central bank rates for different countries, tips on choosing broker, more on technical analysis (my favourite), on what is carry trade, managed forex accounts truth (myth debunked), tips and everything else! *I can’t think of anything much that he haven’t really covered.

I believe Peter’s currently working on the site really hard, to integrate both the blog and his information on a CMS so that readers can access the information easily. For that I give him a thumbs up and encourage you to visit his site for his original articles.

If you have any interesting resources to share, email me at jude@nobsnetwork.net

Humpty’s Corner EUR/JPY 10/28/08

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in forex. 0 Comments

Hello forex fans!

Yes, I know its been awhile, but I have a dominate side for perfection.

For the past couple of weeks, as long as you have been trading against the dollar, you should have done somewhat well. Im here to tell you, this isnt going to end anytime soon.

AUD/USD is heading for parity and I think at this point it is quite feasible to happen. While we will see fluxutions, I believe it is headed for this mile mark.

Metals and materials, along with commodities have been dominating the stock market. Going with pairs against the USD, that are know for heavy exports of these things, will be the pairs to watch very closely.

Another currency that we have been watching closely is the Yen. According to my daily charts, we are on a #3 leg going down. Since the #3 leg usually completely outperforms the #1 leg, I think we will see a significant drop in the Yen pairs very soon.

Good Luck!

Humpty

Dan’s Forex Market View – 19 Oct 2007

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in AUDUSD, forex, forex signals and GBPUSD. 4 Comments

Hello,

Here are my thoughts for today. No explanations or charts this time, just simple ‘signals’.

AUD/USD (0.8915)

Trend: Downward

Take profit target at 0.8775

Stop loss (and reverse position) at 0.8990

GBP/USD (2.0442)

Trend: Uptrend

Take profit target at 2.0600

Stop loss (and reverse position) at 2.0370

Regards,
Dan
Life Holdings Management

British CPI Lower than expected. Cable slumps

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in forex economic news. 0 Comments

The British CPI figure came out today. It came in at 1.8% which was lower than the forcasted 1.9%. It would appear this data has all but ruled out another interest rate hike this year, maybe even for next year as well. There is even speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year. It’s important to remember that these numbers are lagged, so we are probably starting to feel the full effect of all the previous rate hikes in the UK. It seems Mervyn King has done a good job at controlling inflation so far, but there are still inflationary pressures that may not be fully “priced in” to the these figures. At the time of writing, Oil was making record highs in excess of $88 per barrel. If oil remains this high, it may send this figure back over the 2% area in the coming months.

Out of all the central banks now, it looks like the European Central Bank is least likely to cut rates. Due to this the British Pound has fallen to a 2 ½ year low against the Euro.

Against the dollar the pound also slumped on the news. Lets take a look at the chart:

As we can see, cable dropped over 50 pips in the first few minutes after the release and appears to have set the trend for the day.

This post is from Peter Marsden’s site which can be found at http://www.forexpm.com

TNT Daily Forecast – 16 October 07

Published on 4 years, 3 months ago in forex and forex systems. 0 Comments

I’ve gotten permission from Clarence, admin of The Forex Club on Yahoo to reprint his daily insights with his TNT system. Check it out : )

US Dollar Index

The major trend of the US Dollar Index is still down. On Monday, the index went to a high of 78.130 before settling at 78.985, which is down by 0.175 compared to Friday. The low of the week is 77.860. Immediate resistance to the Index is 79.553 (13-Week Moving Average Line), followed by 80.00.

Currently the RSI is pointing downward at 30.92%, indicating that the index is trending downward (secondary downward retracement) which is a weakening US Dollar. We expecting the RSI to rise to the high of 43% before resuming its major downtrend.

General Market Commentary (October 15, 2007) by CMS Forex:

The Dollar was lower against the Euro and Yen on Monday but reversed overnight losses versus the Dollar-block currencies as US stocks fell. The Yen was initially lower as the news that the US government would work with big banks to help clean up credit-market problems increased risk appetite. However, falling stocks in the US increased risk aversion and the high yielding currencies reversed earlier gains against the Yen. Sterling rose on a stronger-than- expected UK house price gain.

The EUR/USD rose ahead of tomorrow’s European inflation reports on speculation quickening inflation will prompt the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates. The pair’s short-term and long-term trends are still up. There is resistance at the 1.43-handle. If this is broken, the pair will possibly test the 1.4570 area, which would be the pre-euro highs for the German mark. We expect volatility in the pair this week as the FX market awaits the October 19 G-7 meeting. There are supports in the 1.40 and 1.38 areas.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato said the Dollar has more room to fall over the next several years. Over the medium term “we still see room for further depreciation, ” Mr. de Rato said. As for the Euro, he said, it is “very near” its equilibrium value. His comments seem to imply the Asian currencies may appreciate.

The New York Fed’s manufacturing index rose to a stronger-than- expected 28.8 in October, the highest since July 2004, from 14.7 in September. The number indicates a continued expansion in the New York manufacturing sector.

UK home prices rose a stronger-than- expected 2.7% in October driven by a surge of higher value properties ahead of new regulations. Average asking prices in London increased a record 5.0% m/m in October after falling 2.5% m/m in September, according to Rightmove’s monthly survey. The surge in London price helped push the countrywide increase to 2.7% m/m, reversing September’s 2.6% m/m decline.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB has not changed its economic growth forecasts.

EUR/USD

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “upward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. The major downward retracement has not materialized on Monday. However, it is due to materialize sometime this week. The pair remain above the weekly support of 1.4084, with next support at 1.4011 which is the upper band of the upward channel. Immediate weekly resistance is at 1.4300, which is the pair’s historically high. Weekly Stochastic is seen crossing downward at the 80% level, indicating that the pair has limited upside and is gathering momentum for a downward move.

From the daily chart, the pair remains supported at 1.4154, with next support at 1.4065, 1.3972 and 1.3853. Immediate daily resistance is at 1.4300. The Default MACD is showing a down-trend while the two pairs of Moving Average Lines are still indicating an up-trend. Immediate daily resistance is at 1.4200, followed by 1.4300. Daily Stochastic is seen going to cross downward at the 71% level, indicating a possible downward move over the next few trading days. This week, we are expecting the pair to make another attempt for a major “downward” retracement.

From the hourly chart, the pair is seen forming a double top at 1.4240.

We are still bearish towards the pair, waiting for the pair to resume its major “downward” retracement.

GBP/USD

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “upward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. The pair broke its weekly resistance at 2.0398, which is now its immediate support, with next weekly support at 2.0140. Weekly Stochastic is seen at the 84% level, indicating a limited upside for this pair.

From the daily chart, the pair is seen approaching the daily resistance level at 2.0480. Immediate daily support at the 2.0360 level, followed by 2.0276 (40-Day Moving Average Line). The pair’s short-term moving average lines (10 and 40-Day) are still indicating an uptrend. However, the Default MACD is beginning to indicate a downtrend. Daily Stochastic is seen moving upward at the 53% level, indicating the pair’s secondary upward retracement.

From the hourly chart, the pair is seen reaching the R2 of the day at 2.0434, with next resistance at 2.0480. Immediate intra-day support is at 2.0360, followed by 2.0305 (Hourly 23.6% Fibo Level) and 2.0286.

We are still bearish towards the pair, waiting to short the pair when it resumes its major “downward” retracement.

USD/CHF

From the weekly chart, the pair is on a major “downward” move, as indicated by the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines. However, this week’s bear candle indicates that the pair is still undergoing its secondary downward retracement. The pair met firm resistance at 1.1848. Immediate weekly support is at 1.1770 (Weekly 23.6% Fibo Level), followed by 1.1642. Weekly Stochastic has crossed upward at the 42% level, indicating that the pair is still gathering its momentum for its major “upward” retracement.

From the daily chart, the pair met firm resistance at 1.1838 (40-Day Moving Average Line), with next daily resistance at 1.1895 (Daily 23.6% Fibo Level) and 1.1937 (89-Day Moving Average Line). Immediate daily support is at 1.1628. Both MACDs are showing an up-trend, while the short-term moving average lines (10-Day and 40-Day Moving Average Lines) are still indicating that the pair is on its major “down” trend. The Daily Stochastic is seen moving downward at the 56% level, indicating the pair may need to do a pullback before resuming its major “upward” retracement.

From the hourly chart, the pair is broke the intra-day support at 1.1800 but rebounded above that level.

We are waiting for the pair to resume its major “upward” retracement and go long on the pair.

USD/JPY

From the weekly chart, the pair is continuing its attempt to crawl back to its upward channel. However, both the Long MACD and the Moving Average Lines are still indicating a down-trend. This week the pair is seen moving downward and is caught between its 13-Week and 26-Week Moving Average Lines. Immediate weekly resistance is at 117.86 (26-Week Moving Average Line), followed by 118.97 (Weekly 23.6% Fibo Level). Immediate weekly support is at 117.00 (13-Week Moving Average Line). Weekly Stochastic is continuing its upward move at 88% level.

From the daily chart, the pair is seen supported at 117.38 level, followed by 116.57 (Daily Fibo Level) and 116.35 (40-Day Moving Average Line). Immediate resistance is at 117.88 (144-Day Moving Average Line), followed by 118.40 (Daily 38.2% Fibo Level). Its short-term (10-Day and 40-Day) moving average lines have crossed upward indicating its upward move. Both MACDs are also indicating an uptrend. Daily Stochastic is seen crossing downard again at the 69% level.

From the hourly chart, the pair failed to remain above its support at 117.53 which indicates a temporary loss of upward momentum.

We are still bullish towards this pair and are watching to go long on pull-back.

EUR/JPY

On the weekly chart, this week, the pair met firm resistance at the upper band of its upward channel (i.e. 167.89). Its immediate weekly support is at 163.63, followed by 163.11 (13-Week Moving Average Line) and 161.29 (Lower band of the upward channel). Weekly Stochastic is showing a limited upside at 93% level. Watch for a major downward retracement just like EUR/USD.

On the daily chart, the pair met firm resistance at 167.00, with next daily resistance at 1.68.85. Its immediate support is at 165.80 (10-Day Moving Average Line), followed by 165.16, 164.70 (Daily 23.6% Fibo Level) and 162.05 (Daily 32.8% Fibo Level). Both MACDs are still indicating an upward trend. Daily Stochastic is seen trending sideway at the 70% level.

On the hourly chart, the pair met firm resistance at 167.75 and then dived down to 166.45 level.

We remain cautious towards this pair.
TNT students, please use the updated TNT charting templates that was sent to you on October 14. Any resistance or support levels not found in the charts, please manually update them yourself as we will be sending you the next updated charting templates this coming Sunday.
The above analysis can also be used by our non-TNT students as a guide to their own trading. We welcome feedback from our non-TNT students regarding the effectiveness of this Daily TNT Market Analysis for your trading.

Have a great trading day ahead!

Cheers,

Clarence

Admin of The Forex Club