Uh uh, it’s 9 hours from now before the next Nonfarm Payroll figures are release for the US, which means its another royal rumble again. If you’re new to NFP, this is a short introduction from IBFX.
What is the non-farm payroll report?
Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly US NFP report is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.
The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month’s numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.
What’s more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the US economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the US dollar.
The exact figures will be released here.
We’re estimating a figure of 65 – 75K jobs this round as compared to the previous huge 166K. If it goes as forecast, we’ll probably see Mr. USD dipping against most major pairs, but I’m doubting since the ADP figures were so much better than expected. Hmm, mix feelings. Let’s explore some of the charts to see what kind of potential good trades we can get, technically.
If it were to be crappier than the forecast.
USD/CAD
It looks pretty good for a short with the fibo levels. In the general long term, USDCAD still seem to be on a major down trend.
USD/CHF
A doji is forming on the 4th hour, with 200EMA/SMA lines below. We’ll watch out for MACD reversing downwards before an entry after the news release (yes, after if you’re trading the news).
GBP/USD
Looks really good for a long now, especially after the slide with the Interest Rates figure earlier. The major trend is still upwards, let’s wait and see if it heads up back since 200EMA/SMA lines are on the top for hour 1 and hour 4 charts.
Remember, if you’re trading the news, please only do it after the news release and wait for some reaction. You’d rather make lesser than get yourself whipped in the process. Also take note that during this time, orders are more difficult to fill and you might be offered a wider spread as compared to your usual ones.
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